Super Bowl LVI Bengals rushing props: Mixon and matchin' bets
The Super Bowl prop betting menu is famously extensive. While the obscure markets are fun and get a lot of attention, what's really beneficial about betting props is that you can hone a bet based on your handicap of a game or a player-usage situation.
When it comes to Super Bowl LVI, I intended on betting the under on Joe Mixon carries. However, his total rushing attempts are lined at 16.5, which is a carry or two lower than I would've hoped for. Not wanting to walk away from a desire to fade his success against a Rams defense that's quietly allowed just 3.9 yards per attempt this season, I had to look for an alternative bet that was still mathematically viable.
Joe Mixon longest rush under 13.5 yards (-112)In 19 starts throughout the regular season and playoffs, Mixon has had a run of 14 yards or more in 11 of them. At a long-rush success rate of 57.9%, that should translate to a price of -137. So, why is the over being priced at -112 with an implied probability of 52.8%?
Since their bye week, the Rams' opposing tailbacks have recorded more than 180 carries over 10 games. L.A. allowed a rush of more than 13 yards only twice during that span. Across 292 regular-season carries, Mixon registered 13 breakaway runs for a 4.4% breakaway rate, per Playerprofiler.com. He has just two such rushes over 52 postseason carries for a 3.8% clip.
With the Rams' defensive long-rush rate at 1% and Mixon's long-rush clip at 4%, we'll split the difference and assume Mixon is probable to have a long rush on 2.5% of his carries. At that rate, he'd need 40 attempts to expect a long rush Sunday. With 20 carries, he'd have a 50% chance for a run of 14-plus yards. With every carry under 20, his probability for a long rush goes down by 2.5%.
| MIXON RUSH ATT. | LONG RUSH PROB. |
|---|---|
| 20 | 50% |
| 19 | 47.5% |
| 18 | 45% |
| 17 | 42.5% |
| 16 | 40% |
| 15 | 38.5% |
With this bet priced at 52.8%, without knowing how Mixon's workload will play out, anything at 18 carries or fewer provides an edge with the under hitting at 55% or better. This is enough for me to make this bet instead of taking Mixon to have fewer than 16.5 carries. It's also respectful of Mixon's ability to churn out better than four yards per carry, which would allow him to go over his game total of 62.5 yards on 16 rushing attempts.
Number of Bengals to have a rush attempt: Under 3.5 (+175)This is all about price. A +175 payout implies that the Bengals will have three or fewer different players run the football 36.4% of the time. It's safe to assume Mixon and Burrow will have a rushing attempt, which means two more Bengals must run the football for us to lose. Since the over is the favorite, it should come as no surprise that there are two main candidates to take a handoff or a toss: Samaje Perine and Ja'Marr Chase.
Strangely, based on recent usage, Chase is more likely to be tabbed for a run play. He only had seven carries in the regular season, but once the playoffs began, he had three rushing attempts against the Raiders alone and added one more in each of the next two rounds. Those five carries are four more than Perine, though, as the Bengals' backup running back and third-down specialist has just one rush this postseason.
While there's a small chance a fifth candidate finds himself with a carry, this is essentially a bet that either Chase or Perine won't have a rushing attempt. If this was lined closer to 50/50, I wouldn't bet it. But if the odds approach +200, it's on my radar for Sunday.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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