Super Bowl LVI Bengals passing props: Will cool Joe Burrow stay hot?

For my money, quarterback props correlate the most with how a game script plays out. If you can accurately handicap the matchup from a side or total perspective, you can probably predict the quarterback stats accurately. However, what most novice bettors fail to realize is that a positive game result for a quarterback's team is actually a detriment to their stats and vice versa.

When we look at Joe Burrow and the Bengals' passing game for Super Bowl LVI, there's reason to like a handful of overs, but it's not because I think Cincinnati will win the championship. It's actually the opposite.

Joe Burrow over 36.5 pass attempts (-110)

Given the quality of the Rams' defense, both in their ability to rush the passer and hold opponents to less than four yards per carry on the ground, it's up to Burrow and Zac Taylor to overcome their biggest challenge of the playoffs on the offensive side of the ball.

What that should mean isn't a conservative run-first approach, but instead, more formations that feature an empty backfield and instructions to Burrow to get the ball out of his hands quickly. The signal-caller should act as a point guard, distributing the ball to a roster of playmakers that should provide good matchups deep down Los Angeles' secondary depth chart.

Will this work? Only time will tell. But rather than worry about yardage or completions in the prop market, I'll bet on Burrow to have the contest in his hands early and often, and what happens after the ball leaves those hands is irrelevant for our purposes.

Joe Burrow under 39.5 longest pass completion (-110)

If the strategy is to get the ball out quick, that should also mean that there won't be enough time for the Bengals to run deep routes over the top of the Rams' coverage. I don't expect big plays to be on the menu next to the guacamole on Sunday, as I wrote earlier this week, but like a good chip dip, I'm fine with Burrow moving the ball down the field in smaller increments and not only in large chunks. That hasn't been their modus operandi anyway since the rest of the NFL picked up on the danger of allowing Ja'Marr Chase to get deep down the field in single coverage.

Joe Burrow passing yards (-109) over Matthew Stafford

Let's say the new Comeback Player of the Year is playing from behind, and the short passing game is having a modicum of success. Burrow could start accumulating yardage like he did against the Titans and in come-from-behind games against the Chiefs (the first matchup), 49ers, and Chargers. Or Matthew Stafford might not need to air it out with help from his run game. This can win multiple ways.

Joe Burrow over 349.5 passing yards (+400)

Lastly, for a small price, you can back Burrow to play from a significant deficit in the second half or in a close back-and-forth contest at 4-to-1 odds. If the run game gets stifled, then it will be all Burrow, all the time. If L.A.'s pass rush gets to the second-year QB, like many think, it will only create more passing downs and extra yardage to pad the stats. In a game where Burrow may need to throw it 40 times, 8.75 yards per attempt is an easy accomplishment for a quarterback who averaged 8.9 YPA this season.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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