The west’s focus on imminent invasion in Ukraine may backfire – and bolster Putin | Keir Giles

The US risks embarrassing itself and its intelligence if Russia chooses an option other than invasion

Warnings from the US that Russian troops are poised to strike at Ukraine are growing more urgent and strident. There can be little doubt of the US's conviction that Ukraine is at imminent risk, and the number of nations advising citizens to leave the country as soon as possible shows that the warnings are at last being considered credible.

But the emphasis on near-inevitable war - and the naming of narrow timeframes when it is expected to happen - is also closing down options for the US and its allies, while opening them up for Russia. Moscow still has the initiative, and the risk is growing that its president, Vladimir Putin, is being set up to achieve a diplomatic victory through pulling the rug from under the western war scare.