NHL betting guide: True moneylines for Feb. 14-17

Matt Russell

from on 2022-02-14 21:00 (#5W4XM)

It took one week after the All-Star break to make bettors feel better about the NHL. With COVID-19 testing relaxed, rosters have become more reliable on a nightly basis. That's created more valuable bets on underdogs and favorites alike, but it's the big 'dogs that have made the last week the most interesting.

Following our moneyline guide last week would have given you a 9-11 record with the 20 teams that showed value. Though that's not a winning record on the scoreboard, the betting account is all that matters. With wins on the Blue Jackets (+210 at Capitals), Senators (+200 vs. Hurricanes), Devils (+220 at Blues), and Canucks (+175 vs. Maple Leafs), our underdog payouts more than made up for the sub-.500 record, pushing us over five units into the black.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and how to use that information to create your own moneylines.

When the NHL halted play around Christmas, we shared my 2021-22 season ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. In light of all the lineup inconsistency across the league this season, we held firm for the next six weeks, using a 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets.

Since the NHL adjusted its COVID-19 testing policies after the All-Star Game, we've moved to a 60-40 split. We're slowly putting more emphasis on team metrics for this season without going all-in on what's happened, given how many teams have played games with severely mismatched roster strength. With the regular-season calendar stretched until the end of April, we'll maintain that ratio for now.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel.

With more than half of the regular season's games in the books, we'll provide this guide twice per week to highlight where the value lies in NHL moneylines. Here's a weeknight look at games played Monday-Thursday this week:

DATE	GAME	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
Feb. 14	DET@MIN	+165/-165	DET +197/MIN -159
	TOR@SEA	-130/+130	TOR -125/SEA +153
	CHI@WPG	+122/-122	CHI +144/WPG -117
	EDM@SJS	-125/+125	EDM -120/SJS +147
Feb. 15	BOS@NYR	+101/-101	BOS +111/NYR +110
	STL@OTT	-110/+110	STL -105/OTT +129
	NYI@BUF	-120/+120	NYI -115/BUF +141
	TBL@NJD	-117/+117	TBL -112/NJD +138
	PHI@PIT	+160/-160	PHI +190/PIT -153
	WSH@NSH	-109/+109	WSH +102/NSH +120
	DAL@COL	+146/-146	DAL +173/COL -140
	CBJ@CGY	+154/-154	CBJ +183/CGY -148
	EDM@LAK	+121/-121	EDM +142/LAK -116
Feb. 16	MIN@WPG	-118/+118	MIN -114/WPG +139
	FLA@CAR	-117/+117	FLA -112/CAR +137
	ANA@CGY	+154/-154	ANA +182/CGY -147
	COL@VGK	+124/-124	COL +146/VGK -119
Feb. 17	STL@MTL	-127/+127	STL -122/MTL +150
	OTT@BUF	+132/-132	OTT +155/BUF -126
	PIT@TOR	+124/-124	PIT +146/TOR -119
	WSH@PHI	-117/+117	WSH -113/PHI +138
	DET@NYR	+146/-146	DET +173/NYR -140
	BOS@NYI	+101/-101	BOS +111/NYI -110
	SEA@WPG	+114/-114	SEA +134/WPG -109
	CBJ@CHI	+124/-124	CBJ +146/CHI -119
	ANA@EDM	+230/-230	ANA +280/EDM -219
	VAN@SJS	+108/-108	VAN +120/SJS +102

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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