Article 5W9VT Here's how the Rams can sustain their success

Here's how the Rams can sustain their success

by
Dom Cosentino
from on (#5W9VT)

By winning the Super Bowl, the Los Angeles Rams fulfilled the ambition of their aggressive team-building approach. They went all-in by trading valuable draft assets for stars at premium positions. The plan worked, so it was worth it. But someday, the bill will come due. Someday, the franchise will pay a hefty price.

That's the narrative, anyway. It's one that I, too, bought into as the team set about acquiring players like Jalen Ramsey, Matthew Stafford, Von Miller, and Odell Beckham Jr. to put the finishing touches on what became a title-winning roster.

But the Rams weren't exactly all-in, a designation that implies they sacrificed their future to satisfy the present. L.A. does, in fact, place great value on the draft as a mechanism for long-term roster construction. The team also isn't in any kind of salary-cap hell. If Aaron Donald and head coach Sean McVay do indeed come back, there's nothing to suggest L.A. can't sustain its success.

It's true that the Rams haven't had a first-round pick since 2016, and that they don't possess another first-rounder until 2024. But that hasn't hindered them in the slightest. In the five seasons since McVay took over as head coach, L.A. has gone 55-26 with four playoff appearances, two trips to the Super Bowl, and now one championship. Only the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints have won more regular-season games, and the Chiefs are the only team with more playoff wins in that stretch (eight) than the Rams' seven.

cropped_GettyImages-526180600.jpg?ts=164The Rams' last first-round pick was QB Jared Goff in 2016, here with former head coach Jeff Fisher and GM Les Snead. Victor Decolongon / Getty Images

Yes, L.A.'s method has involved trading first-round picks - valuable but uncertain commodities - for proven, veteran talent. But that's just the high-profile part of the team's approach. The Rams have been just as aggressive stockpiling and using draft selections after the first round, both by making a series of trades and by taking advantage of the NFL's compensatory draft-pick system.

That part of the Rams' outlook hasn't made nearly as big a splash as swapping multiple first-rounders for players like Ramsey and Stafford. Since draft picks provide clubs with up to four inexpensive years of cost certainty, and since no team consistently drafts well, it can be important to acquire as many as possible: more selections means more opportunities to choose the right player.

Between 2017 and 2021, L.A. drafted a total of 45 players between Rounds 2 and 7. During that span, only the Minnesota Vikings (52) made more picks in that range. The league average was 35 selections. So, the Rams drafted 10 more players in the last five years in those rounds than the average, which is the equivalent of nearly one and a half more draft classes.

cropped_GettyImages-1238548312.jpg?ts=16Snead at the Super Bowl parade this week. Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Of the 46 players to play at least one snap in L.A.'s Super Bowl victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, 20 were homegrown draft picks, including 18 taken since 2017. Seven others were undrafted free agents the Rams identified and signed. According to Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap, Los Angeles ranked sixth in homegrown players in 2021 and had more of its own draft picks on its roster than any other team. Over The Cap's database shows the Rams have the third-highest percentage of rostered players on rookie contracts.

The trades that helped the Rams accumulate that kind of draft capital are too numerous to mention. Per theScore's analysis of the Pro Sports Transactions database, the team made 12 trades in 2018, 10 in 2019, two in 2020, and nine in 2021. Most - though not all - happened in a frenzy during draft weekend.

McVay and Rams general manager Les Snead have also taken advantage of the comp pick system, which awards 32 additional selections at the end of Rounds 3 through 7 to compensate teams for losing free agents. As of last year's draft, the league also awards clubs a pick at the end of the third round for developing minority head coaches or general managers that get hired by other teams.

The Rams benefited from this change after the Detroit Lions named Brad Holmes, L.A.'s director of college scouting, their general manager. L.A. was awarded a third-round selection in 2021 and 2022 as a result and used the former on inside linebacker Ernest Jones. He played 93% of the snaps in the Super Bowl and registered seven tackles, three quarterback hits, two tackles for a loss, a sack, and a pass defended. Donald's heroics rightly got a lot of attention, but the Rams don't win the Super Bowl without players like Jones.

cropped_GettyImages-1370387528.jpg?ts=16Ernest Jones celebrates a first-quarter play in the Super Bowl. Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images

The Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots have long used the comp pick process to replenish their rosters with cheaper players after letting more expensive veterans depart in free agency. The Rams have caught on to this, too, adding a total of nine comp picks in the last five drafts by letting vets such as Janoris Jenkins, Rodney McLeod, Trumaine Johnson, Sammy Watkins, and Rodger Saffold leave.

Teams were permitted to trade comp picks starting in 2017, which only added to L.A.'s arsenal; the Rams have traded their comp picks five times since then, flipping them to acquire even more draft assets. The league hasn't yet officially announced the 2022 comp picks, but the Rams could get as many as five additional selections, per Over The Cap. L.A. isn't slated to pick before the third round this spring, but it still has eight draft choices to work with.

Now, the Rams are currently an estimated $20 million over the 2022 salary cap, and they'll have to become compliant by mid-March. This shouldn't be a major hindrance, though, because the cap is fungible. If, say, 40-year-old left tackle Andrew Whitworth retires, they could wipe $16 million off the books right there. A contract extension for Stafford, who has just one year remaining on his current deal, could also be structured in a way to lower his short-term cap hit. A new pact for Donald, whose hints about retirement could be a negotiating tactic, could accomplish something similar.

Injury luck has also helped the Rams through the years. Yes, they were without Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee in the Super Bowl, and Beckham was lost to injury in the second quarter. But in aggregate, L.A. has consistently been one of the NFL's healthiest teams. Per Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost metric, the Rams ranked first, first, fourth, 10th (the year they missed the playoffs), and second in adjusted games lost to injury between 2016 and 2020. And in 2021, Over The Cap ranked the Rams first in contract utilization, which factors in snaps played based on earnings in a given season.

Past success, of course, doesn't offer future guarantees. But the Rams' aggressiveness with trades - to acquire draft capital in addition to dealing for proven talent - is an approach that works for them. L.A. hasn't only cracked open a championship window; it's also created a method to keep it from closing.

Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.

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