It will take Hamilton public health up to three years to recover from COVID

COVID is costing Hamilton public health more than $46 million a year and tying up so many resources that it will take up to three years for paused programs to catch up.

It has created a significant backlog and it will have a significant and measurable effect on the health of our population for years to come," said Hamilton medical officer of health Dr. Elizabeth Richardson.

Richardson is planning for COVID to transition to endemic in 2022, meaning the virus won't disappear but will be a constant presence with more predictable spread and fewer severe outcomes.

That change would allow public health to create a permanent, steady and sustainable response to COVID compared to now, when roughly 75 per cent of the department's resources have been diverted to the pandemic response.

We do need to move forward and figure out how we're living with this virus," Richardson told the city's board of health on Feb. 14. Evolving from this emergency way of responding ... to a sustained response that is able to be maintained."

It remains to be seen whether the population has accumulated enough immunity through immunization and infections to decrease the risk of severe illness enough for the virus to no longer pose a threat to the health-care system.

This can still take a few seasons," said Dr. Peter Juni, scientific director of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table. It's a gradual process."

For now, the trends are all moving in the right direction - Omicron is believed to have peaked in Hamilton from Jan. 9 to 24.

COVID patients in the city's hospitals have declined to 82 on Friday, including 12 in the intensive care unit (ICU). It compares to 309 on Jan. 17, including 38 in the ICU.

During that same time, the number of hospital staff self-isolating dropped to 244 from 1,032.

Our hospitalization rates are coming down very rapidly," said Ontario chief medical officer of health Dr. Kieran Moore about the province. I do think the worst is behind us."

Hamilton was down to eight ongoing outbreaks in high-risk settings Friday, including one at the Hamilton-Wentworth Detention Centre. There were 101 outbreaks on Jan. 14.

The largest outbreak of the fifth wave has ended at Heritage Green Nursing Home, where 119 were infected and one died from Jan. 5 to Feb. 15.

Most of the large outbreaks in shelters and seniors' homes have been declared over, including at Arbour Creek Care Centre, where 91 were infected and five died.

While we know COVID-19 is not going away, we are in a very different place than we were two years ago," said Moore. We have greater knowledge and experience in how this virus behaves and what works to stop its transmission ... We have highly effective vaccines that have changed the course of this pandemic and we have effective treatments for those at risk of getting very sick."

But there are signs that Omicron is not done with Hamilton yet. The city's hospitals remain severely overcrowded with occupancy at or above 100 per cent - ideal is up to 90 per cent.

The city reported three COVID deaths Wednesday and one Friday to bring the pandemic toll to 511. Two of the fatalities were seniors age 80 and older, one was a resident in their 70s and one was a Hamiltonian in their 60s. The death of a resident in their 70s was removed from the list Thursday. To be included among COVID fatalities, there can't be an alternative cause of death.

Demand for COVID shots has plummeted to under 1,000 doses a day for Feb. 13 to 17 compared to more than 10,000 daily for Dec. 21 and 22.

It's significant considering three shots is key to keeping Omicron at bay. While two doses doesn't stop transmission of the fast-spreading variant, the booster provides roughly 60 per cent protection against infection.

It's also better at guarding against severe outcomes, with 90 per cent effectiveness compared to 80 per cent for two doses.

Two doses is still excellent but three doses are better," said Moore.

Juni stresses, It's never too late to start with the first dose."

He expects a quiet spring and summer on the COVID front. But Juni warns of the possibility of another wave next fall and winter.

The risk remains and we must remain nimble," said Moore. We must ... be ready to respond to new risks in a manner that minimizes severe outcomes and impacts on our health system while limiting any further disruption of ... daily lives."

The latter is a hard balance with an increasing toll on health from the pandemic response itself. In public health alone there has been fewer inspections, no dental screening, less help for the families of high-risk babies and missed vaccines for schoolchildren.

Recovery is likely to take one to three years as we settle into new roles for public health and address those deficits of care," said Richardson. We won't be able to open everything back up right away."

Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com