Stanley Cup odds update: Where is the value in the current market?
The 2021-22 NHL campaign continues to breeze by. While it feels like we just hit the mid-way point, the reality is some teams have finished as much as 67% of their schedule.
The trade deadline is not far out, with the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs soon to follow. Which teams offer the best value to make noise at the dance? Let's dive into just that.
| TEAM | ODDS (Feb. 28) | ODDS (Jan. 27) |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | +400 | +500 |
| Florida Panthers | +750 | +800 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +750 | +800 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +750 | +800 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1000 | +900 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +1000 | +1200 |
| Calgary Flames | +1300 | +2000 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +1600 | +1800 |
| Boston Bruins | +1800 | +1800 |
| Minnesota Wild | +2000 | +1500 |
| New York Rangers | +2000 | +2000 |
| Washington Capitals | +2500 | +1600 |
| St. Louis Blues | +2500 | +2500 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +3000 | +2000 |
| Nashville Predators | +3000 | +4500 |
| Dallas Stars | +5000 | +3500 |
| Los Angeles Kings | +6000 | +10000 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +6000 | +4000 |
| New York Islanders | +8000 | +6000 |
| Winnipeg Jets | +9000 | +4000 |
| Vancouver Canucks | +15000 | +9000 |
| Detroit Red Wings | +20000 | +15000 |
| San Jose Sharks | +20000 | +15000 |
| New Jersey Devils | +50000 | +15000 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +50000 | +15000 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +50000 | +15000 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +50000 | +15000 |
| Seattle Kraken | +50000 | +20000 |
| Ottawa Senators | +50000 | +30000 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +100000 | +30000 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +100000 | +20000 |
| Arizona Coyotes | +100000 | +100000 |
These odds imply the Colorado Avalanche have a 20% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Even considering hockey is a very random, luck-filled sport where anything can happen, I still think the Avs are undervalued on the market. This team has as much star power as any in hockey. Led by Darcy Kuemper and his .920 save percentage, their goaltending is better than it is given credit for. Injuries have riddled this team all season, but they still sit atop the league. And, they have room to add an impact player at the deadline - Claude Giroux, perhaps? - without moving a bunch of money out. I think this line should be around +250.
Toronto Maple Leafs (+1000)Three teams have more wins than the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. Three. That fact is impressive without context. When you factor in that both of their goaltenders have struggled to make saves for a couple of months, it's even more impressive. The Maple Leafs own a .650 points percentage over the last 20 games, which ties them with the Boston Bruins for ninth in the NHL. They've accomplished that while getting worse goaltending than every single team in the league at five-on-five. Even the New Jersey Devils, for example, have gotten more out of Jon Gillies and Nico Daws. Yeah ... Toronto's goaltending has been that bad, and the team continued to win a lot of games.
As bad as Jack Campbell and, to a slightly lesser extent, Petr Mrazek have performed, they're better than they've shown. Campbell is not the guy we saw at the start of the year. However, it's safe to assume he'll be closer to what we've seen over 124 NHL games to date (.917 save percentage) than the guy he's been over the Leafs' last 20 (.877 save percentage).
Toronto's offense is lethal. With Rasmus Sandin's emergence, its defense is competent. I expect the Leafs to get more saves moving forward, and they'll no doubt look to add a piece or two at the deadline to better prepare for the playoffs. I'm not at all arguing Toronto should be the Cup favorite, but I do see value at this price.
Calgary Flames (+1300)The Calgary Flames are probably the most complete team in Canada. They have one of the most dominant top lines in the NHL, a very responsible middle-six, and a stout defense core. Jacob Markstrom has also found his form and performed as one of the league's top goaltenders. The Flames needed more secondary scoring, and they look to have found that in Tyler Toffoli, who has four goals in six games since the trade. There aren't many (any?) glaring holes on this team, and they play in a weak division.
The injury-plagued Vegas Golden Knights are probably the only club with a realistic shot at preventing the Flames from making the final four, which means there's value at +1300.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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