Vaccination falling in Hamilton as COVID cases slowly rising
COVID-19 vaccination has plummeted to well under 1,000 daily doses in Hamilton at the same time that wastewater surveillance is flagging a potential uptick in cases.
It's significant because the recent decline to fewer than 600 daily shots comes as the province is reopening and considering dropping mask mandates - likely around the end of March.
Hamilton's hospitals are still recovering from the fifth wave and starting to bring back postponed care. St. Joseph's Healthcare alone is facing a backlog of 6,500 cases as it ramps up to 70 per cent of pre-COVID surgical volumes.
The decrease in shots is also while Omicron subvariant BA.2 is expected to become the dominant strain in Ontario by mid-March. Known as Stealth Omicron," it is about 30 per cent more transmissible than the current dominant subvariant BA.1.
Increasing vaccination is considered key to holding BA.2 at bay and protecting the health-care system as Ontario reopens.
We do believe that the vaccine provides a very strong benefit in preventing hospitalizations and severe outcomes against BA.2," Ontario's chief medical officer of health, Dr. Kieran Moore, said Thursday. That combination of natural immunity plus vaccine immunity is building a strong wall of defence for Ontario against BA.2 and potentially a recurrence of Delta ... and enabling us to safely open."
Vaccination hit a peak in Hamilton of more than 10,000 doses a day on Dec. 21 and 22. Shots per day remained mostly above 5,000 until mid-January. For the next month after that, daily shots were between 1,000 and 3,000 on most days.
However, the numbers have dipped below 1,000 daily since Feb. 13 with the exception of the first two days that youth age 12 to 17 became eligible for boosters. Although, it was only a slight bump to 1,104 on Feb. 18 and 1,094 on Feb. 19.
The last four days have been particularly low: 335 shots on Feb. 27; 577 on Feb. 28; 528 on March 1 and 584 on March 2.
It's significant considering Hamilton has a long way to go. Just 56 per cent of adults age 18 and older having a booster shot. Some age groups are particularly vulnerable.
Kids age five to 11 have the lowest vaccination rates in the city, with about half having one shot and one-third having two doses.
While 82 per cent of youth age 12 to 17 have had two shots, just nine per cent have gone for their booster over the last two weeks.
Booster rates are particularly lagging for those age 18 to 29, with fewer than 40 per cent having three doses. Those age 30 to 34 are below 45 per cent.
In comparison, 80 per cent or more of those age 70 or older have had three shots.
In addition, the divide between different parts of the city remains vast, shows data from Ontario research institute ICES. It also raises the role that social determinants of health are playing in the vaccination rollout.
As of Feb. 6, the highest boosted area of Hamilton was 58 per cent in Dundas forward sortation area (FSA) L9H. The lowest, at 32 per cent, was in less affluent L8L, which stretches from Ottawa Street North to just west of James Street North and from King Street East to the waterfront.
The importance of immunization was stressed by Moore as the unvaccinated make up the majority of COVID cases in Ontario's intensive care units (ICU).
These individuals have much higher rates of hospitalization, ICU admission and death compared to those fully vaccinated," said Moore.
Hamilton Health Sciences is still reporting severe overcrowding, with occupancy at 113 per cent at Juravinski Hospital and 106 per cent at Hamilton General Hospital. Ideal is up to 90 per cent.
The city's hospitals were caring for 43 COVID patients Thursday and had 181 staff self-isolating.
None of the city's seven active outbreaks were in hospital. However, a second person has died in an outbreak at Alexander Place Long-Term Care in Waterdown, where 70 have been infected since Jan. 1.
The city reported two new COVID deaths Wednesday - both seniors age 80 and older - to bring the pandemic toll to 524.
Wastewater surveillance reported by the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table shows a potential uptick in cases for Central West, which includes Hamilton, Brant, Haldimand, Norfolk, Niagara, Waterloo and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph.
Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com