Putin is betting that the west is too decadent to defend its values. He is wrong | Rafael Behr

Carried to power and marinated in myths about themselves, dictators always underestimate the strength of democracies

Vladimir Putin bet on a short war because he did not think that Ukrainians would resist invasion. Now he is betting that Russians will tolerate a long war and that the west, amid noisy complaining, will let him finish it.

In the first phase, that involves using every weapon at the Kremlin's disposal with indiscriminate savagery until Russian tanks can roll from Kharkiv to the Polish border.

Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist