NHL weeknight betting guide: True moneylines for March 14-17

Matt Russell

from on 2022-03-14 16:01 (#5X3CJ)

What home ice is worth is a tough enough question, but it becomes even more of a guessing game when the contest is being played at a neutral site in the middle of a CFL field. The Buffalo Sabres were the host team in Sunday's Heritage Classic despite playing in the home country of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Did it matter in the end, though? They beat the Leafs anyway.

As for our bi-weekly list of moneyline prices we'd be willing to bet, underdogs were the order of the day Sunday as we went 5-1 for better than seven units.

The Montreal Canadiens, tantalizingly priced throughout this season, were overvalued when they opened as favorites to the Seattle Kraken. Sure enough, the Kraken came away with the win, penalizing anyone getting overly excited about the Habs' recent run of good play.

Elsewhere, the Penguins, Islanders (twice), Devils, and Canucks joined the ranks of rare valuable favorites in the past three days. The first three won in that role. Vancouver didn't.

Finally, the market's souring on the Oilers caused them to again find their way onto our betting card. For the second straight time, Edmonton rewarded its backers with a win as a home underdog, this time against the Lightning. However, the Oilers' foray into underrated territory might have come and gone.

Strangely, there's just one game on the board for Monday night - a fairly priced barn burner between the Coyotes and the Senators. But with three more weeknights of games, there'll be other opportunities to find value. A night off never hurt anyone.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

We made a small adjustment to our formula last week, moving this season's on-ice predictive metrics to 75% of our total rating. While our ratings are weighted to this season, basing 25% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to place more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened this campaign. That's important because this season is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

The stabilization of rosters at the All-Star break has meant that underdogs, or favorites that aren't favored by enough, are priced that way because of less quantifiable reasons, like public perception or short-term variance. So, it shouldn't be a surprise that our guide is up nearly 30 units despite a 66-80 record. A 45.2% win rate is just fine when the vast majority of plays are on plus-money pups.

The cheat sheet

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

DATE	GAME	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
March 14	ARI@OTT	+122/-122	ARI +144/OTT -118
March 15	DAL@TOR	+135/-135	DAL +159/TOR -129
	ANA@NYR	+160/-160	ANA +190/NYR -153
	NYI@WSH	+103/-103	NYI +114/WSH +107
	ARI@MTL	+108/-108	ARI +120/MTL +102
	VGK@WPG	-105/+105	VGK +105/WPG +117
	PIT@NSH	+101/-101	PIT +112/NSH +109
	BOS@CHI	-114/+114	BOS -110/CHI +134
	DET@EDM	+199/-119	DET +239/EDM -190
	NJD@CGY	+159/-159	NJD +190/CGY -153
	FLA@SJS	-156/+156	FLA -149/SJS +185
	COL@LAK	-107/+107	COL +103/LAK +119
March 16	BOS@MIN	+122/-122	BOS +144/MIN -117
	CBJ@OTT	+110/-110	CBJ +129/OTT -106
	TBL@SEA	-131/+131	TBL -126/SEA +155
	NJD@CGY	+159/-159	NJD +190/CGY -153
March 17	WSH@CBJ	-126/+126	WSH -121/CBJ +149
	DAL@MTL	-133/+133	DAL -128/MTL +157
	CAR@TOR	+129/-129	CAR +152/TOR -123
	NSH@PHI	-101/+101	NSH +109/PHI +112
	NYI@NYR	+111/-111	NYI +130/NYR -106
	PIT@STL	+117/-117	PIT +138/STL -113
	BUF@EDM	+253/-253	BUF +311/EDM -241
	SJS@LAK	+160/-160	SJS +190/LAK -153
	DET@VAN	+164/-164	DET +196/VAN -158
	FLA@VGK	-105/+105	FLA +106/VGK +116

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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