NHL Wednesday best bets: Flames to burn Devils
After a jam-packed schedule Tuesday night, we have just four games on the docket Wednesday evening.
While I don't yet see a ton of value in terms of sides, I have found one I like to pair with shot props.
Devils (+265) @ Flames (-330)The New Jersey Devils have quietly played pretty solid hockey of late. While they only have four wins over the last 10 games, they've often dictated play at five-on-five, and their share of the high-danger chances is above 60% during that span.
Maintaining their standing in that category is going to be a difficult task in this game. The Calgary Flames are sixth in high-danger chance share over the last 10 games. That total sits above 60% if we adjust to their last 10 in Calgary. They routinely dominate in the chance department and are better equipped to capitalize than New Jersey.
The Flames also have an enormous edge in goal. Nico Daws has mostly played well of late, but the rookie netminder enters play having started eight straight. That's a lot to ask of a guy still finding his footing in the league, and Tuesday night gave us our first indication the heavy workload is taking its toll. Daws allowed 2.36 goals more than expected before being yanked, presumably to preserve some energy for this game.
I'm not sure he'll fare much better considering the stress the Flames put on opposing netminders. They rank sixth in attempts per 60, fifth in expected goals per 60, and fifth in actual goals per 60 on home soil. Suffice to say, they don't make it easy on you.
Calgary has a better, more balanced roster. It has a potential Vezina Trophy candidate going up against an unpolished rookie. It's a rested squad playing host to a fatigued team. New Jersey also has injury concerns, as its best defensive blue-liner, Jonas Siegenthaler, was unable to go on Tuesday night while Pavel Zacha left with an injury and won't dress in this game.
The Flames should be able to flex their muscles in this one.
Bet: Flames -1.5 (-125)
Josh Norris over 2.5 shots (+100)Norris has been one of my favorite value targets for some time. While he doesn't go over the number on a nightly basis, he routinely gets the job done at home when he has an advantageous matchup. That's most definitely the situation he finds himself in on Wednesday night.
The Columbus Blue Jackets are one of the NHL's worst shot-suppression teams. They give up a ton of attempts and shots on target, especially to centers.
Only the Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers have conceded more shots to the position. In New York's case, the difference is just one shot.
Norris found himself in a similar spot at home to the Arizona Coyotes last time out, and he dinged them for five shots on target. I don't know if he'll reach those heights again, but I do expect a productive outing.
Oliver Bjorkstrand over 2.5 shots (+100)Bjorkstrand is a rare cat who enjoys more success on the road than at home. He's gone over his shot total (2.5) in just 37% of his home games, but he gets the job done 54% of the time on the road. That's a big difference.
Only two teams have allowed shot attempts at a higher rate than the Ottawa Senators, who've been absolutely crushed by right-wingers all year. Only the Detroit Red Wings have conceded more shots to the position on a per-game basis.
Bjorkstrand only had two shots the last time these teams met, but it wasn't for a lack of chances - he had six attempts toward the net. Look for him to have more success this time around.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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