Fantasy: Analysis and projections from 4th day of free agency

Find positional rankings, additional analysis, and subscribe to push notifications in the NFL Fantasy News section.

Recent fantasy articles

• Analysis and projections from 3rd day of free agency
• Fantasy free-agent index (Updated)
• Analysis and projections from 2nd day of free agency
• Analysis and projections from 1st day of free agency

Let's look at the latest wave of notable skill-position signings - and what they mean for fantasy managers.

Big movesPackers trade WR Davante Adams to Raiders

Adams' new contract: 5 years, $141.25 million

There's a lot to unpack anytime a superstar gets dealt in the NFL. If you're curious about the details of the Adams trade itself or the interesting reports around it, you can find all that information here.

In terms of the fantasy fallout, it's pretty simple. The Raiders just acquired the best receiver in the league, who'll continue to be peppered with targets, only in a new offense with a less talented quarterback.

That's not a knock on Derek Carr. He's an above-average player at his position, but he's no Aaron Rodgers. Carr's friendship with Adams dating back to their college days is an important part of this move and should help the wideout's transition to a new offense.

While Adams' fantasy value takes a slight hit, the 29-year-old will remain a top-five fantasy receiver until we see otherwise.

As for Carr, his rise up the rankings is capped by the abundance of big-name quarterbacks near the top. He goes from QB17 to QB14 with this news.

Other Raiders pass-catchers like Hunter Renfrow - and to a lesser extent Bryan Edwards - will see their fantasy stock drop. Renfrow was overachieving in fantasy thanks to his volume, and Adams' presence is sure to take a major bite out of his targets. It was already evident Edwards' breakout wasn't coming, but now his path to targets is even more challenging.

If tight end Darren Waller can stay healthy, he should retain top-five fantasy value, but that's far from guaranteed with a new alpha in town.

In the backfield, Josh Jacobs gets a small bump since this should increase his scoring opportunities. It also sets the Raiders up for more positive game scripts, where Jacobs historically produces better stats.

On the Packers' side, it isn't all doom and gloom fantasy-wise. Rodgers will fall to the low-end QB1 range as we've yet to see a quarterback excel the season after losing an elite receiver. The 38-years-old's rushing stats have dwindled, making it harder for him to keep up with the premier fantasy QBs.

It's almost impossible to evaluate his pass-catching corps until we know who else is joining the roster. With five picks now in the top 100, including two first-rounders, we should see general manager Brian Gutekunst tap into this year's crop of rookie WRs.

There are also several free-agent receivers still available, including Will Fuller, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry, and Antonio Brown.

The one Packer who might actually benefit from the Adams trade is Aaron Jones. In the lone game Adams missed this season, Jones became the default top option, catching seven of the 11 passes thrown his way for 51 yards. He also added 59 yards and a score on the ground in that contest.

The potential for more pass volume is enough to move Jones into the high-end RB2 range in fantasy with a return to RB1 status not out of the question, even though the offense could struggle out of the gate as they find their way without Adams.

Adams's 2022 projection (16 games): 112 receptions, 1,357 receiving yards, 10 TDs

Rams sign WR Allen Robinson

Contract: 3 years, $45 million

The rich continue to get richer in Los Angeles as the Rams acquire yet another playmaker to help them in their bid to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Coming off a season in which he looked unmotivated and seemingly left out of the game plan, Robinson escapes that disjointed Bears' offense in favor of the Rams' top-tier passing attack.

While the target competition will be fierce between Robinson, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods, based on what we saw last year, there are plenty of passes to go around.

In Matthew Stafford's first season with the club, the Rams were top-10 in attempts as well as top-five in passing yards and touchdowns.

Robinson probably won't reach the 150-target mark - something he's done four times in his career - but what he gives up in volume, he'll make up for in scoring opportunities. The 6-2, 220-pound wideout immediately becomes one of the team's best red-zone weapons.

Despite reports, a reunion with Odell Beckham Jr. is unlikely given the recovery timeline for the torn ACL he suffered in the Super Bowl. This is also bad news for Van Jefferson's fantasy outlook since it bumps him down to fourth on the depth chart.

Continue to draft Kupp as the WR1 overall in fantasy, with Robinson and Woods slotting in as upside WR3 options. And with this much talent around him, Stafford should be locked in as an unimpeachable top-10 fantasy QB.

Robinson's 2022 projection (16 games): 66 receptions, 751 receiving yards, 8 TDs

Bengals sign TE Hayden Hurst

Contract: 1 year

Hurst was a forgotten man in Atlanta last year after the team drafted superstar Kyle Pitts fourth overall. However, that had nothing to do with Hurst's play.

The year before Pitts' arrival, Hurst - who is a former first-round pick himself - finished 10th in receptions, 14th in receiving yards, and ninth in touchdowns among tight ends.

Though we've yet to see the financial details of his new contract with the Bengals, this has the look of a prove-it deal - with the hope he can remind everyone of his value before hitting the market again next offseason.

As far as landing spots for tight ends go, Cincinnati is a decent one for Hurst. He's now connected to one of the best young quarterbacks in the league and will step right into C.J. Uzomah's starting job.

The Bengals were seventh in passing yards and passing touchdowns last season - though most of that can be attributed to their wide receivers. Despite some big splash games, Uzomah wasn't a consistent fantasy option.

While Hurst will do his best to carve out a bigger target share, he can't be viewed as anything more than a fantasy TE2 - best deployed as a bye-week replacement.

Hurst's 2022 projection (17 games): 49 receptions, 506 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Bills release WR Cole Beasley

After failing to find a trade partner interested in acquiring Beasley, Buffalo chose to cut ties with the 32-year-old slot receiver.

The move provides the Bills with cap savings that will be used on free agents, including the massive deal handed out to Von Miller one day earlier.

It'll also free up targets for some of the team's younger pass-catchers, specifically Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and tight end Dawson Knox.

Beasley averaged 108 targets per season during his three years in Buffalo with back-to-back 82-catch efforts in his last two campaigns. McKenzie did his best to convince the coaching staff he's the man to take over in that spot - by posting 11 catches, 125 yards, and a touchdown in his lone start in Week 16.

General manager Brandon Beane still needs to fill out the receiver depth chart behind that top trio, so expect another couple of additions through free agency and the draft.

As it stands, though, Davis is a WR3 for fantasy, and McKenzie is one of the top sleepers heading into 2022.

Minor movesFalcons sign RB Damien Williams

It's been a quiet and injury-filled couple of years for Williams, following his mini-breakout as a member of the Chiefs.

He lost his backup job in Chicago to Khalil Herbert last season, but now he's joining a Falcons backfield that consists of sophomore Caleb Huntley and 29-year-old Mike Davis. That leaves the door open for Williams to contend for meaningful touches if he can pass those two on the depth chart.

Atlanta remains in the running for quarterback Deshaun Watson, and if they land him, you can expect the front office will find a quality ball carrier to put next to him.

Either way, you should plan for the Falcons to address their starting RB spot in free agency or the draft.

Bears sign WR Byron Pringle, WR Equanimeous St. Brown

The signing of Pringle or St. Brown wouldn't move the needle much on most rosters, but the Bears' receiver room is almost barren behind Darnell Mooney.

Though it's a guarantee that new general manager Ryan Poles will bring in more pass-catchers, there's a chance either Pringle or St. Brown could kick-start their career in Chicago. Even so, they're still well off the fantasy radar until we see who else the team secures before training camp.

Texans keep RB Royce Freeman

After failing to live up to his third-round draft capital as a member of the Broncos, Freeman has bounced around the league without much success.

Houston's no-name backfield is primed for someone to come out of nowhere and take the starting job, but Freeman won't be the one to do it.

Dolphins sign WR Trent Sherfield

Sherfield is the latest 49ers player to follow Mike McDaniel to Miami.

However, unlike recently signed running back Raheem Mostert - Sherfield is unlikely to see much work in a crowded receiving corps that features Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Cedrick Wilson, and pass-catching tight end Mike Gesicki.

Patriots sign RB Ty Montgomery

While Montgomery has been used as both a receiver and a running back during his NFL career, he hasn't made a fantasy impact since leaving Green Bay in 2018.

The Patriots will definitely appreciate his versatility as a special teamer who could step into a pass-catching role on offense if the situation called for it (i.e. a James White injury).

Bengals keep WR Mike Thomas, QB Brandon Allen

Thomas and Allen are decent depth pieces for the AFC champions, but neither would be a fantasy option if they were asked to start due to injuries.

Lions keep QB David Blough

At the moment, Blough is in position to serve as the backup to starter Jared Goff. That'll likely only last until the draft when the Lions select a passer they can develop as their quarterback of the future.

Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.