Super Bowl LVII odds: The biggest movers amid a wild offseason
The NFL just won't rest. As I'm writing this, another significant trade happened. Will it shake up the odds for Super Bowl LVII? Maybe, maybe not. It takes a pretty big splash to produce a meaningful change to the odds. Smaller moves will affect smaller markets - divisional odds, season win totals, etc.
Over a month ago, we discussed a handful of teams with room to improve their odds. While the Steelers and Giants haven't made big splashes, you could make a case that their division rivals haven't made moves as good as they think. Let's look at the shifts in the macro market after things got crazy.
Super Bowl LVII odds| TEAM | ODDS (3/23) | ODDS (2/15) |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | +700 | +750 |
| Buccaneers | +750 | +2800 |
| Chiefs | +1000 | +800 |
| Packers | +1100 | +1300 |
| Rams | +1200 | +1100 |
| 49ers | +1300 | +1200 |
| Broncos | +1600 | +2200 |
| Chargers | +1600 | +2000 |
| Cowboys | +1700 | +1400 |
| Browns | +2000 | +4000 |
| Ravens | +2200 | +2000 |
| Bengals | +2200 | +1600 |
| Colts | +2500 | +2800 |
| Titans | +2800 | +2000 |
| Cardinals | +3000 | +2500 |
| Dolphins | +3300 | +5000 |
| Patriots | +3300 | +2500 |
| Raiders | +4000 | +5000 |
| Vikings | +4000 | +3300 |
| Saints | +4000 | +4000 |
| Eagles | +4000 | +3300 |
| Steelers | +7000 | +5000 |
| Commanders | +7000 | +5000 |
| Bears | +8000 | +6600 |
| Giants | +8000 | +6600 |
| Panthers | +10000 | +5000 |
| Jaguars | +10000 | +10000 |
| Seahawks | +10000 | +3300 |
| Falcons | +15000 | +5000 |
| Lions | +15000 | +12500 |
| Texans | +17500 | +15000 |
| Jets | +17500 | +10000 |
We'll start from the bottom as it comes as no surprise the Panthers', Seahawks', and Falcons' odds have plummeted as they appear to have missed out on getting a legitimate starting quarterback for 2022.
Amazingly, Washington made a quarterback move at a price - trade capital and contract - that would make you think they've found gold. However, its odds have lengthened in a way that suggests Carson Wentz isn't the answer.
Gobbling up those teams' win probability are Tampa Bay, Denver, and Cleveland. Each of those clubs either added or re-added a top-tier signal-caller. The Chargers' and Dolphins' odds have shortened without doing anything at the quarterback position. This can be attributed to sharp bookmakers and/or bettors liking what each team has done to support the incumbent QB.
The Chargers added Khalil Mack, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and J.C. Jackson to fill holes on defense so that their team success doesn't fall solely on Justin Herbert's shoulders this season. The Dolphins brought in Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead to help Tua Tagovailoa reach his potential.
If your sportsbook is slow to adjust the squads that improve without the splashy moves, then it's time to pounce on Miami. While that sounds unlikely, I'll take this time to remind you that the Bengals survived the AFC gauntlet and are your defending conference champion.
This brings us to our last point. The Browns controversially splashed, the Colts have a short-term upgrade at quarterback, and the AFC West appears to be playing on its own planet next season. However, Cincinnati's odds lengthened to 22-1 in the last month.
The Bengals went out of their way to address their biggest issue - the offensive line - on a team that had a fourth-quarter lead in last month's Super Bowl. Cincinnati rosters a star quarterback who isn't a candidate for suspension and hasn't lost his scariest weapon, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals are watching other clubs fly past them on the oddsboard. That, like the rest of the NFL offseason, raises an eyebrow.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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