NHL Tuesday best bets: Senators to hang with Predators

Monday was a mixed bag for our best bets. The Hurricanes took care of business on the road against the Capitals, but unfortunately, the Kings laid an egg in the nightcap.

We'll aim for better as we look at the best way to approach this nine-game slate.

The Avalanche and Flames are two of the highest-powered offensive teams, ranking second and sixth in goals scored, respectively. Both are potent from top to bottom, and when healthy, each can make a case for having the league's most dangerous top line.

Despite all the firepower set to take the ice in Calgary, it's the under where I see the most value.

The Flames have played stout defense for the majority of the season. Although they're coming off a track meet against the Oilers, that's not indicative of how well they've been limiting chances. At five-on-five, the Flames sit fifth in expected goals against over the last 10.

While the Avalanche lag a little behind, they still sit 12th over the last 10. They are playing above-average defense, even without Samuel Girard and Bowen Byram.

Their ability to generate offense has taken a hit in that time. It's possible they are taking fewer chances and tightening up defensively to compensate for a less capable blueline. Whatever the reason is, it's an issue: The Avalanche are 28th in high-danger chances.

I don't see them magically flipping the switch and piling up great looks against a stingy Flames side. But if they do, Jacob Markstrom and his impressive .925 save percentage stand in the way.

At the other end of the ice, I believe the Avalanche have enough to slow down the Flames - at least a little. Colorado has arguably the best defensive pairing in the NHL, and Darcy Kuemper has quietly been lights out between the pipes for quite some time. He leads the NHL in save percentage and high-danger save percentage since the beginning of February.

I'm not suggesting there'll be no offense, but even a potential 4-2 game would be enough to get us home.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-115)

It hasn't caught up to them just yet, but the Predators appear to be hitting a bit of a wall. Normally a solid five-on-five side, Nashville has struggled in that game state of late.

The Preds have controlled just 47% of the shot attempts and 46% of the expected goals over the last 10 games, ranking 22nd in each category.

By comparison, the pesky Senators have controlled 53% of the shot attempts and expected goals, ranking top-11 in each.

At the very least, Ottawa should be able to play the Predators relatively even at five-on-five. The Senators also have the goaltender in much better form.

Anton Forsberg has an impressive .926 save percentage in 17 starts since the beginning of February, putting him miles ahead of Juuse Saros in that time (.904 SV% in 18 starts).

In a vacuum, you'd obviously take the Predators over the Senators. But given each team's recent form and the odds at hand, there appears to be plenty of value on Ottawa.

Bet: Senators +1.5 (-125)

This play is pretty straightforward. The Bruins are playing by far their best hockey of the season. In fact, they're in the midst of one of the best stretches we've seen from any team all season. They own an 8-1-1 record over the last 10 games and have absolutely dismantled teams at five-on-five.

Boston has controlled nearly 64% of the expected goals, a nearly unfathomable mark. The Maple Leafs are humming around 60%, but they're still a tier below the Bruins right now.

Simply put, the Bruins look to have an edge at full strength. They also have a clear advantage in goal. Jeremy Swayman has been lights out of late, ranking second to only Kuemper in save percentage since the beginning of February.

The Maple Leafs can barely expect a .900 save percentage from their goaltenders right now. So it's fair to say the Bruins have a big advantage no matter who Toronto goes with.

I'll take my chances with the home side that holds edges at five-on-five and in goal.

Bet: Bruins (-140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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