NHL Wednesday best bets: Coyotes can't swim with Sharks

It was a mixed bag on the ice Tuesday. We went 1-2 with sides and 2-1 with player props. We'll aim for a winning night as we look at the best ways to approach Wednesday's six-game slate.

The Detroit Red Wings are not a good team. I won't try and make you believe otherwise. But they're also not as bad as their recent stretch - headlined by an 11-2 loss - would make you believe.

Take their last 10 games, for example. The Red Wings have controlled approximately 45% of the expected goals, generating 27.51 and allowing 32.96. That's an expected net of -5.45 goals, a little more than half a puck per contest. In actuality, the Red Wings were outscored 49-26 in that span; a -23 net.

The number of goals for aligns almost exactly with what they should've scored based on the chances they've created. Their goaltenders have conceded more than 16 goals above expected, though.

Thomas Greiss is past his best-before date, while Alex Nedeljkovic's rookie season in Carolina no doubt fooled people into believing he was better than he is. Even so, it's reasonable to suggest the goalies aren't going to give the Red Wings an .864 save percentage over their next 10 games. There should be at least some level of positive regression.

Detroit's offense should be able to contribute meaningfully in this game as well. The New York Rangers aren't great at five-on-five, their penalty kill has been conceding a lot, and Igor Shesterkin likely won't be there to mask their problems Wednesday. He hasn't started on consecutive nights all season, so it's fair to assume Alexandar Georgiev will get the nod.

Georgiev has his moments, but the overall body of work is quite poor. He owns an .894 save percentage and, among those with 20-plus starts, ranks bottom-10 in goals saved above expectation per 60.

I like the Red Wings to show real pushback following an embarrassing defeat. With Georgiev in goal and a fatigued Rangers team in town, there is value in backing Detroit outright.

Bet: Red Wings (+130)

The San Jose Sharks are a bad team in bad form. At five-on-five, they've controlled just 41.48% of the shot attempts and a hair under 44% of the expected goals over the last 10 games. Not good; and yet they are a tier - or two - above the putrid Arizona Coyotes.

Arizona has posted unfathomably bad numbers of late. The Coyotes' share of the shot attempts sits at just over 36%, while their xG share sits at 32%. Yikes.

A simpler way of putting that: for every xG they generate, they allow two. Not that a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning would ever post such numbers, but those kinds of differentials would be disastrous for a side with their level of shooting talent and goaltending. For Arizona? It's a death sentence.

They don't have enough finishing in their lineup to outperform expectations to the extent necessary to win games. They also don't have the goaltending; especially under these circumstances. Their options are Karel Vejmelka for the third time in four nights or Josef Korenar, an .853 goaltender in the AHL this season.

Neither should be able to match what the Sharks get from James Reimer, who has quietly enjoyed a solid campaign. He owns a .917 save percentage and sits just one spot below Jake Oettinger in GSAE per start.

As poorly as the Sharks are playing, I see edges across the board. Back them to take care of business inside 60.

Bet: Sharks in regulation (+102)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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