AFC futures betting: Using season win-total markets to build your ratings
A raucous free-agency period in the NFL has clarified the landscape of the 2022 season, with a number of major moves drastically altering the futures markets in the AFC.
We're still waiting to see where impact players will be drafted and what the schedule will look like, but that hasn't stopped oddsmakers from posting season win totals for almost every team.
NFL season win totals| TEAM | WIN TOTAL | OVER PRICE |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | 11.5 | -150 |
| Buccaneers | 11.5 | +108 |
| Packers | 11 | -114 |
| Chiefs | 10.5 | -167 |
| Cowboys | 10.5 | -104 |
| Rams | 10.5 | +101 |
| 49ers | 10 | -134 |
| Chargers | 10 | -114 |
| Broncos | 10 | -114 |
| Bengals | 10 | +111 |
| Cardinals | 9.5 | -162 |
| Ravens | 9.5 | -143 |
| Colts | 9.5 | -125 |
| Titans | 9.5 | -114 |
| Vikings | 9 | -114 |
| Dolphins | 9 | +104 |
| Patriots | 9 | +116 |
| Eagles | 8.5 | -134 |
| Raiders | 8.5 | -114 |
| Saints | 8 | +116 |
| Steelers | 7.5 | -121 |
| Commanders | 7.5 | +104 |
| Giants | 7 | -134 |
| Bears | 7 | -104 |
| Jaguars | 6.5 | -114 |
| Seahawks | 6 | -130 |
| Panthers | 6 | -114 |
| Lions | 6 | -104 |
| Falcons | 5.5 | +101 |
| Jets | 5.5 | +111 |
| Texans | 4.5 | -114 |
(The Browns aren't listed due to the uncertainty around a potential suspension for Deshaun Watson.)
It's asking a lot of bettors to get down on a proposition priced at -110 in April 2022 that won't be paid out until January 2023. Still, there's a lot we can take away from these markets.
What win totals can meanWhile I'm not looking to take on the risk of all the variables that can change the valuation of a win-total bet, I am interested in seeing what the market thinks. It's never too early to get a rudimentary starting point for team ratings.
Win probability changes depending on the situation when two equally matched teams play. The Dolphins playing a September game in New England (as they did last year) presents different challenges than if they're on the road in late December. What if Miami's home game is actually a neutral-site game in London, England?
These win totals are based on a rough estimate of rosters, knowledge of opponents, and little else. In a way, it's the purest look at how oddsmakers view these teams. Big bettors haven't weighed in yet, since they'll wait for more information and limits to rise over the coming months.
How to create initial ratings from win totalsThe first step is to figure out a team's median win total using this market. For example, the Buffalo Bills sit atop the oddsboard. A -150 price on over 11.5 wins suggests there's a 60% chance Josh Allen and Co. win more than 11 games, meaning 12 wins is closer to a 50/50 proposition.
In a 17-game season, 12 wins equate to a win percentage of 70.5%. For now, we have to assume the Bills' schedule is average in difficulty. Therefore, their win total suggests the Bills have a 70.5% chance of beating a league-average team on a neutral field.
We want to extrapolate that into odds for a single game against a league-average team - which, in a 17-game season, would be one lined at 8.5 wins (-110/-110). The Las Vegas Raiders are the closest thing on the oddsboard. Converting 70.5% to a moneyline makes the fair price for Buffalo -240. If these teams met on a neutral field, the odds might look like this:
| GAME | MONEYLINE | SPREAD |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | -260 | -6.5 |
| Raiders | +220 | +6.5 |
Moving all the way down the board, the Houston Texans have a slightly better than 50/50 chance to exceed 4.5 wins. That means they have a 26.5% chance of defeating the league-average Raiders on a neutral field. Plugging that win probability into a moneyline calculator would crank out a fair price of Texans +277.
Here's how the odds for that game might look after a sportsbook accounts for the straddle:
| GAME | MONEYLINE | SPREAD |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | -310 | -7.5 |
| Texans | +260 | +7.5 |
The new-look Raiders, coached by Josh McDaniels with Derek Carr throwing to Davante Adams, might be better than average. However, their win total is depressed by one of the few static variables: six tough matchups in the AFC West.
You can do this exercise with any team (except Cleveland) by finding a 50/50 win total for each team and dividing it by the number of games played (17). That's how likely that team is to beat an average opponent. We'll look at the NFC to figure out how to match up a decent team against a slightly below-average squad.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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