NHL weekend betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 2-4
For the third straight year, the Stanley Cup Playoffs will start later than hockey fans are accustomed to. With the calendar's turn to April still leaving a month's worth of play, let's lay out our predictive power ratings for all 32 teams.
In order to read the power ratings, the first step is understanding that an average team would be 1.0. A club with a 1.16 rating, for example, is 16% better than an average team, while a club with a .82 rating is 18% worse. All ratings are an indication of what to expect from a club going forward and have nothing to do with its record in the standings.
| TEAM | RATING |
|---|---|
| Panthers | 1.16 |
| Avalanche | 1.11 |
| Oilers | 1.11 |
| Flames | 1.10 |
| Leafs | 1.09 |
| Lightning | 1.08 |
| Bruins | 1.08 |
| Wild | 1.08 |
| Penguins | 1.06 |
| Stars | 1.06 |
| Golden Knights | 1.05 |
| Hurricanes | 1.05 |
| Kings | 1.05 |
| Predators | 1.04 |
| Rangers | 1.02 |
| Blues | 1.02 |
| Islanders | 1.02 |
| Capitals | 1.01 |
| Devils | .99 |
| Jets | .98 |
| Canucks | .98 |
| Kraken | .94 |
| Ducks | .91 |
| Sharks | .91 |
| Blackhawks | .90 |
| Flyers | .90 |
| Blue Jackets | .90 |
| Coyotes | .89 |
| Senators | .89 |
| Sabres | .88 |
| Red Wings | .88 |
| Canadiens | .82 |
The Panthers lead the way despite being second in the overall standings, but there's more intrigue down the list. The Rangers have gotten Vezina-quality goaltending from Igor Shesterkin, which has driven their placement in the standings. However, that's more difficult to sustain than quality team play.
The Hurricanes have gotten similarly great goaltending from Frederik Andersen. They also banked points early in the season to augment their place in the standings. On the flip side, the Islanders had a horrific start, but their rating here indicates they're better than their record.
The Oilers are rated much higher than their mediocre standing this season. Bet on Connor McDavid and Co. like a middle-of-the-pack team at your own risk. The Devils are also rated higher than their record, though they're on a different tier. New Jersey is closer to mediocre despite being in the bottom six. A strong finish is there for the Devils if they bring the effort required to compete this month.
The recipeBefore the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
With the calendar turning to April, this season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 85% of our total rating. Basing 15% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel, and 3% without travel.
How to use the guideWhat follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near-coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.
| DATE | GAME | WIN PROB.(%) | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2 | FLA@NJD | 55.5/45.5 | -125/+125 | FLA -120/NJD +147 |
| PIT@COL | 44.4/55.6 | +125/-125 | PIT +147/COL -120 | |
| CBJ@BOS | 36.7/63.3 | +172/-172 | CBJ +206/BOS -165 | |
| LAK@WPG | 49.1/50.9 | +104/-104 | LAK +115/WPG +107 | |
| MTL@TB | 39/61 | +156/-156 | MTL +186/TB -150 | |
| MIN@CAR | 49.7/50.3 | +101/-101 | MIN +112/CAR +109 | |
| TOR@PHI | 55.7/44.3 | -126/+126 | TOR -121/PHI +148 | |
| STL@CGY | 38.4/61.6 | +161/-161 | STL +191/CGY -154 | |
| DAL@SJS | 53.5/46.5 | -115/+115 | DAL -110/SJS +135 | |
| April 3 | DET@OTT | 43.7/56.3 | +129/-129 | DET +152/OTT -124 |
| FLA@BUF | 53.7/46.3 | -116/+116 | FLA -111/BUF +136 | |
| NYI@NJD | 45/55 | +122/-122 | NYI +144/NJD -117 | |
| ARI@CHI | 46.7/53.3 | +114/-114 | ARI +134/CHI -110 | |
| PHI@NYR | 35.5/64.7 | +183/-183 | PHI +219/NYR -175 | |
| MIN@WSH | 48.4/51.6 | +106/-106 | MIN +118/WSH +104 | |
| VGK@VAN | 48.4/51.6 | +106/-106 | VGK +118/VAN +104 | |
| EDM@ANA | 57.2/42.8 | -134/+134 | EDM -128/ANA +158 | |
| DAL@SEA | 48.4/51.6 | +107/-107 | DAL +118/SEA +104 | |
| April 4 | BOS@CBJ | 55.9/44.1 | -127/+127 | BOS -122/CBJ +149 |
| TOR@TBL | 47.5/52.5 | +111/-111 | TOR +130/TBL -106 | |
| ARI@STL | 35.2/64.8 | +184/-184 | ARI +221/STL -177 | |
| CGY@LAK | 47.8/52.2 | +109/-109 | CGY +121/LAK +101 |
Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by the market. From there, compile a list of wagers. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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