Hart Trophy odds update: A 2-horse race

With some teams having completed as much as 87% of their schedules, we are in the home stretch of the NHL regular season.

A handful of players still have a chance at the Hart Trophy, but it's realistically a two-horse race. Let's take a closer look at each candidate's chances and determine who you should back to claim the hardware.

We'll start with Auston Matthews, who's emerged as an ever-so-slight favorite to win his first Hart Trophy. It's not hard to see why.

Matthews has piled up a league-leading 51 goals through 63 games, which is a ridiculous 66-goal pace over 82 games. His rate of production would put him at 114 points over a full schedule.

While Matthews lags behind Connor McDavid in points, the Toronto Maple Leafs star is superior in several areas - the obvious one being goal-scoring. McDavid is 11 behind Matthews despite having played six more contests.

Both players are electric offensive producers, so what really separates Matthews is defensive impact.

McDavid has improved defensively compared to a few years ago. His numbers remain a tier below Matthews', though. The Edmonton Oilers allow about two fewer shot attempts and 0.08 fewer expected goals per 60 minutes with McDavid on the ice. Those are solid numbers - especially for the league's most dynamic player - but they don't really move the needle. They're essentially the same team defensively with or without McDavid on the ice.

It's a much different story for Matthews and the Maple Leafs: They concede 7.19 fewer attempts and 0.35 fewer expected goals per 60 minutes with Matthews on the ice.

In simpler terms, the Leafs give up around 54 attempts and 2.40 expected goals per 60 without Matthews on the ice. When he's out there, those numbers dip to 47 shot attempts and 2.05 xG. That moves the needle.

Both players are exceptional talents having exceptional seasons. While Matthews trails in overall production (124 point pace versus 114 point pace), he has a big edge in goals, his defensive impact is much more significant, and his team is 11 points ahead in the standings - despite playing in a division featuring powerhouses in the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Boston Bruins.

It'll come down to the wire, but ultimately, I think the Hart is Matthews' to lose.

When it comes to the other players listed, I just don't see it happening. Igor Shesterkin has played in 46 games and owns a .902 save percentage over the last 10.

Johnny Gaudreau, while spectacular, lags well behind Matthews in goals and McDavid in points.

Jonathan Huberdeau skates on his team's second line, is not a plus defender at five-on-five, and has an offensive zone start percentage above 80. Put another way, he plays supremely cushy minutes. That doesn't add up to a good case.

This is down to Matthews and McDavid. I like the former to pull through at +175.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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