2022 NFL Draft: Best bets to be the first QB, RB, WR, OL selected
The thing that makes the NFL draft most fun is the number of different positions there are on a football field. If you're picking high in the first round, how does the best cornerback compare to the best wide receiver available? You can draft in the mid-teens and still get the best player available at a position of need - like linebacker, safety, or interior offensive line. The No. 1 pick in a given year could be a quarterback, pass-rusher, or offensive lineman.
Two weeks before most NFL drafts, pundits and oddsmakers tend to make assumptions about who the best players are at each position. However, we've learned over the years that beauty is very much in the eye of the beholder.
Let's look at the markets on the offensive side of the ball to see where there might be value.
First QB selected| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Malik Willis | -175 |
| Kenny Pickett | +130 |
| Desmond Ridder | +1400 |
| Matt Corral | +1800 |
| Sam Howell | +2500 |
| Carson Strong | +10000 |
| Bailey Zappe | +10000 |
Willis moved from +150 to the odds-on favorite since this market opened months ago - though mock drafts seemed to align Pickett at No. 6 to the Panthers until recently. The market hasn't budged since that first move, an indicator that Willis would be a more likely choice in the top 10, whether that's to the Lions at No. 2, further down to the Seahawks at No. 9, or anywhere in between.
A price of -175 would be scarier if there were more than one contender, but in a two-horse race, it's still palatable to bet on a team buying in on Willis' upside.
First WR selected| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | +125 |
| Drake London | +130 |
| Jameson Williams | +400 |
| Treylon Burks | +1200 |
| Chris Olave | +1800 |
| Skyy Moore | +5000 |
| Christian Watson | +5000 |
| Tyquan Thornton | +5000 |
| Jahan Dotson | +5000 |
If only Al Davis were still around to call for the Raiders to draft a speedster no one else thinks is the best receiver of the group. Rumor has it that some teams have Williams (+400) atop their board - and all it takes is one team to like a player more than they do the favorite. There are some assumptions that the Falcons will take Wilson to start a run on pass-catchers, but they could simply have loved what they saw when Williams lit up their home turf in the 2021 SEC championship game.
First RB selected| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall | -250 |
| Kenneth Walker III | +200 |
| Isaiah Spiller | +650 |
| Kyren Williams | +1800 |
| Dameon Pierce | +2000 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | +2500 |
| James Cook | +2500 |
| Tyler Allgeier | +2500 |
As a rule, the further down the board you expect the first selection of a position to go, the harder it is to predict which player it'll be. With teams chided for wasting a first-round pick on a player at the replaceable position of running back each year, there's no guarantee any of these players go in the first round.
Once you get into Round 2, it becomes more about fit for a team's offense, so I'd play this market a little looser. Sure, Hall and Walker were more decorated college runners, but splitting a unit between Robinson and Cook to create a +1250 bet could be worth a try, especially since we can envision a team taking a tailback from Alabama or Georgia and feeling pretty good about it.
In particular, Dalvin Cook's little brother has the lineage to go with elite receiving skills that a team might value higher than most. If no running back goes on Night 1, you also have a fun sweat for the second round after almost every other bet is decided.
First OL selected| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Ikem Ekwonu | -140 |
| Evan Neal | +120 |
| Charles Cross | +1000 |
| Trevor Penning | +2000 |
| Tyler Linderbaum | +2500 |
The buzz around the offensive linemen in this draft has been electric. At one point, Ekwonu and Neal were the top two choices for the Jaguars to pick first overall. Since I'm still not ruling that out, I'd bet both players to go No. 1 in a small-risk, big-reward play rather than try to figure out which team will take an offensive tackle first and which prospect is the apple of its eye.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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