NHL Tuesday best bets: Sharks to snap 10-game skid

Our best bets were a mixed bag to start the week. The Carolina Hurricanes took care of business and came through for us on the puck line. Unfortunately, the Dallas Stars laid an egg in Vancouver.

We'll aim for better results on a very busy Tuesday.

I love the under in this spot. Love it.

After a bit of a rough patch, Igor Shesterkin seems to have found his superhuman form again. He's conceded just four goals over his last four starts, picking up a pair of shutouts in that span and posting a .955 save percentage or better in three of those games.

It was pretty much automatic that you'd play an under of 6 in any contest he played for most of the season. I think we're reaching that point again, especially against someone like Connor Hellebuyck.

While Hellebuyck's surface stats aren't overly impressive this season, his overall save percentage (.909) is several points above league average (.902). Plus, he grades out much better in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected, sitting ninth in the league at +13.7. That sandwiches him between Thatcher Demko and Tristan Jarry. Pretty good company.

I expect the goaltending to be very good in this game. I also think Winnipeg is going to have a very tough time generating chances.

The Jets don't have Mark Scheifele or Cole Perfetti in the lineup, which hurts. New York is also in suffocating defensive form, ranking first in expected goals against per 60 since the trade deadline.

Bet: Under 6 (-105)

Even though the San Jose Sharks have lost 10 consecutive games, I think there's real value in backing them Tuesday.

They've played better than their record suggests. The Sharks have controlled nearly 49% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five during their skid, which ranks them 19th in the league in that time.

Believe it or not, they're several tiers above the Columbus Blue Jackets during that span. The Blue Jackets' recent share of high-danger chances sits at 43%, putting them in company with teams like the Seattle Kraken, Anaheim Ducks, Buffalo Sabres, and Arizona Coyotes.

Their issues mostly stem from defensive play. At five-on-five Columbus has allowed 2.99 expected goals per 60 over the last 10, putting the team 26th in the league during that span. There's not much reason to expect things to get any better, as there's a very real chance Zach Werenski will be out of the lineup.

San Jose isn't a deep team, but it has more than enough firepower - headlined by Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, and Brent Burns - to expose Columbus' defensive issues.

Bet: Sharks (-130)

This is a pretty big total considering both teams are in the latter half of a back-to-back, but I think it's warranted. I expect fireworks.

For one, the Vancouver Canucks' offense is firing on all cylinders. They've scored five-on-five goals at a high rate of late and absolutely blown teams away on the man advantage. They rank first in expected goals per 60 and actual goals per 60 over the last 10 games. No team can stop their power play right now.

It just so happens the Ottawa Senators have the league's second-best power play over the last 10. They're only 0.07 xGF behind Vancouver, and they've scored more than 10 power-play goals per 60. Expect both teams to be clinical on the man advantage.

The goaltending situation should lend itself to high goal outputs as well. Filip Gustavsson, who's expected to start for Ottawa, has been brutal this season, conceding 9.4 goals more than expected through just 16 appearances.

While Vancouver could potentially throw out Thatcher Demko, goaltenders who play consecutive nights own a save percentage in the range of .885 this season. If he starts, don't expect him at his best. It's more likely that Jaroslav Halak, who's been mediocre at best this season, will get the nod.

So, we're looking at two lethal power plays and a bad goaltending matchup. That should lead to goals.

Bet: Over 6.5 (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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