2022 NFL Draft: Best 1st-round bets for positional over/unders
As much flair as the top half of the first round will have to fans, what happens late in the round matters more. When it comes to first-round betting markets, it's important to know if teams are looking to keep their pick or move up once the draft starts April 28.
Remember, first-round selections receive a fifth-year option, which means those players will be affordable for longer. In the modern NFL, team decision-makers have figured out certain positions warrant more salary cap allocation. With a fifth year of affordability up for grabs late on the first night, higher-paid positions are worth reaching for to give a team an extra year of cost certainty.
Draft positional totals| POSITION | TOTAL | OVER/UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 2.5 | -250/+190 |
| Running Backs | 0.5 | +145/-190 |
| Wide Receivers | 5.5 | -250/+195 |
| Tight Ends | 0.5 | +475/-700 |
| Offensive Linemen | 7.5 | +135/-165 |
| Cornerbacks | 4.5 | +120/-150 |
| Safeties | 1.5 | -250/+200 |
Sportsbooks are less willing to put up totals for defensive linemen and linebackers as various players have been labeled as both in recent years. For example, edge rushers are just as likely to play on the defensive line in a 4-3 alignment as they are to rush from the outside linebacker position in a 3-4 scheme. Rather than deal with this gray area, sportsbooks just removed the market from their offerings.
Last year, there was a late run on edge rushers, with four going in the last five picks for Round 1. That's because:
- High-impact edge rushers demand a large salary after their rookie contract expires
- The pool of edge rusher prospects is relatively large
- A first-round-worthy quarterback or offensive tackle will be reached for earlier
- Other defensive players, interior offensive linemen, and running backs are more replaceable
Since there's no betting market for edge rushers, we have to apply the demand at that position to the other positional markets. If an extra edge rusher takes one of the 32 first-round slots, that means they're taking a spot from another position.
The high-profile quarterback, running back, and wide receiver positions get attention, but it's important to remember what the implied probability of their odds are.
| POSTION | BET | PROBABILITY |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Over 2.5 (-250) | 71.4% |
| RB | Under 0.5 (-190) | 65.5% |
| WR | Over 5.5 (-250) | 71.4% |
Despite various moments of buzz surrounding Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, or even Carson Strong, I don't think there's a better than 71.4% chance that a team nabs a quarterback late.
On the other hand, there's a better than two-thirds chance that no team wastes a first-rounder on a tailback, so laying -190 on "under 0.5 running backs" is still acceptable.
It's also hard to imagine both Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson getting snubbed in the first round given the apparent value of wide receivers following offseason deals for Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and mid-tier pass-catchers.
Best betOver 15.5 defensive players (-125)
I have 28 players I'm confident will be taken within the first 32 picks. Nine of them are in the front seven and six are in the defensive backfield. That leaves one more defensive player needed to go in the other four picks. With four chances to win something priced close to a coin flip, that's worth a bet.
Of course, "under 16.5 offensive players" is the same bet. Should your sportsbook offer this option at a better price, that's the way to play it.
Best valueUnder 7.5 offensive linemen (+135)
For eight offensive linemen to go in the first round, the big four tackles, along with Tyler Smith, and three interior linemen - Tyler Linderbaum, Kenyon Green, and Zion Johnson - all have to go in the top 32. At a plus-money price, the under is worth it.
Under 1.5 safeties (+200)
Despite being the class of his position, Kyle Hamilton's stock is seemingly dropping. Part of that is his combine measurables, but it's also because safeties are deemed replaceable. It'd be a surprise to see a team reach for one at the end of the first round to push this over unless Jalen Pitre (first round +200) gets picked.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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