NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 22

The Seattle Kraken's inaugural season has been tough, especially compared to their most recent expansion predecessors. In hindsight, the Vegas Golden Knights set the bar too high, artificially inflating hopes for Seattle's first year. The Kraken had a preseason betting market win total of anywhere from 92.5 to 94.5.

That point expectation translates to playoff contention and using that point total betting market was the only concrete way to measure Seattle in October. Fast-forward to April, and the Kraken have "clinched" last place in the Pacific Division, something familiar to expansion teams prior to 2017.

A 4-1 win in Florida in November is probably Seattle's most impressive victory this campaign, but it wasn't even +200 on the moneyline. Part of that is because the market wasn't ready for how good the Panthers would be. The Kraken beat Florida again on Jan. 23, this time slightly longer than +200 at home as it became clear the Panthers are a truck.

Seattle notched its biggest underdog win Wednesday, scoring three times in the first period against the Colorado Avalanche. We've long been aware of how good the Avalanche are. The Kraken hung on for a 3-2 victory after reaching as high as +300 Tuesday and closing at +225 as a home 'dog.

Potentially of more significance, Seattle won the expected goals battle at even strength, 1.73-1.49. That's a surprise considering its early lead had Colorado chasing for much of the game.

How could we have seen this coming in order to follow the guide and bet on the Kraken? Beyond two wins in a row coming into the contest with the Avalanche, Seattle had shown signs in the even-strength expected goals column:

GAME	XFG	XGA
vs. OTT (4-2 win)	1.43	1.45
vs. NJD (4-3 win)	1.32	2.15
@ CGY (5-3 loss)	2.04	1.59
vs. CGY (4-1 loss)	1.32	2.03
@ CHI (2-0 win)	2.33	1.58
@ STL (4-1 loss)	2.47	2.28

The Kraken averaged 1.81 expected goals for while allowing 1.84 expected goals against in their last six games. Playing teams evenly and getting the best of a pair of playoff squads - even in losses - is a better than expected effort for a last-place club in the season's final weeks.

Seattle's inaugural campaign hasn't gone as expected, but its late-season competitiveness gives bettors something to think about in the short term and restored hope for the Kraken this offseason.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Friday, April 22

GAME	WIN PROB.(%)	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
OTT@CBJ	46.3/53.7	+116/-116	OTT +136/CBJ -111
SEA@MIN	37.7/62.3	+166/-166	SEA +197/MIN -159
COL@EDM	46.3/53.7	+116/-116	COL +137/EDM -112
WSH@ARI	54/46	-117/+117	WSH -113/ARI +138

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the market's prices. From there, compile a list of wagers. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if any line movements created value that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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