Big names, legal threats and racism allegations: welcome to Hamilton’s most unexpected election race

Welcome to Hamilton's most unexpected election race, east city voters.

Back in early March, four-time NDP incumbent Paul Miller seemed primed to coast to another provincial election win in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - until his surprise ouster from the party over allegations he joined an anti-Muslim Facebook group. (The MPP denies the allegations and is threatening legal action.)

Suddenly, the longtime orange riding is a potential election toss-up with drama to spare.

The campaign features relatively big-name challengers - including a former football star and a veteran city councillor - as well as racism allegations, legal threats and an independent incumbent facing off against a former family friend.

At this point I'd have a hard time making a prediction on who will win," said Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, pointing to uncertainty created by the NDP's badly managed" ejection of Miller from the party just six weeks ahead of a campaign.

It does change the race in a fairly important way, because the incumbency advantage is really taken out of it ... It presumably could also divide the support of traditional NDP voters in that riding."

So far, election prediction website 338Canada.com is still projecting a likely" NDP win for the riding that stretches east from Kenilworth Avenue through the former city of Stoney Creek.

Newly nominated replacement NDP candidate Zaigham Butt, an accountant and Order of Hamilton recipient, said he is confident he has the backing of many" party voters - despite vocal criticism from some union members with close ties to Paul Miller, a former steelworker.

Some of those critics called Butt's candidacy backstabbing" given Miller was a family friend to Zaigham and his father, NDP riding president Zahid Butt.

The 28-year-old candidate said in an interview that relationship was severed" when his family learned of Miller's alleged hurtful" behaviour. I'm glad the NDP removed him from caucus."

Now, Butt said he is focused on the future. This has been a NDP riding since 2007 and we'll ensure it stays orange."

There's an argument to be made, however, that the Liberals are now the party to beat in the east city, said Graefe.

It's no coincidence Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca showed up in person this week to announce Ward 2 city councillor Jason Farr as the party's flag-bearer for the riding.

In an interview, the 53-year-old said the turmoil surrounding the incumbent MPP did not prompt his jump into the race. With or without Miller in the race, I truly like my chances," Farr said. That issue with the NDP and Paul Miller, that's their issue ... My focus is getting back to the doors and talking to people."

Name recognition is sometimes overrated, said Graefe, but the Liberals can also leverage a recent win federally in the riding by another former city councillor, Chad Collins. Farr said he expects support from the same motivated" group of volunteers that door-knocked for the federal campaign.

The Tories, meanwhile, are challenging with CFL football Hall of Famer and past Hamilton Tiger-Cats general manager Neil Lumsden. (Non-football fans may also recall he and daughter Kristin competed in The Amazing Race Canada.")

Graefe noted the federal Tories actually earned more votes than the NDP in the riding during the last federal election. Lumsden, 69, said he doesn't wanted to be distracted" by the campaign drama - or even hazard a guess as to whether it works in his favour.

I got involved to win," he said. Regardless of what other people may think of our chances - and if they want to think they're better, that's great - I am not going to fall into that trap ... I am not going to take anything for granted."

Miller did not respond to Spectator requests for comment Wednesday - but he's clearly taking an interest in the competition. The MPP, who scooped up close to 50 per cent of votes or better in each of the last three HESC elections, was spotted watching Farr's introductory press event from the parking lot earlier this week.

In a past interview, the 71-year-old threatened legal action against the NDP and called allegations that he joined a racist Facebook group false and an attempt at political assassination." And at a Queen's Park media scrum, Miller proudly showed off a burnt orange" election sign he said he intended to use to run as an independent candidate.

Matthew Van Dongen is a transportation and environment reporter at for The Spectator. mvandongen@thespec.com