What to bet with Travon Walker favored over Aidan Hutchinson at No. 1
We discussed the first overall pick when it was the only available draft prop in January, and three months later, we still don't know much more about the Jaguars' plan. However, as of Monday morning, we know one thing: there's a new favorite atop the oddsboard.
On Friday, GM Trent Baalke admitted they were still considering four players. That shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who's been following the odds.
At various points, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Evan Neal, Aidan Hutchinson, and now Travon Walker have all been favored to be drafted No. 1.
First overall pick odds| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Travon Walker | -150 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | +140 |
| Ikem Ekwonu | +750 |
| Evan Neal | +1600 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | +2000 |
What has sparked Walker's move? It's hard to say, beyond the concept of inside information affecting the market. This is different from when other major moves occurred.
When Neal became the favorite, it was due to the hire of head coach Doug Pederson and his desire to select an offensive lineman to protect Trevor Lawrence. When Hutchinson was the favorite, it was off the news that the Jaguars had franchise-tagged their incumbent left tackle, Cam Robinson.
Baalke's comments indicated the Jaguars would have loved for someone to trade up to the first overall pick to grab Hutchinson - the most reliable prospect of this quintet. This would allow the Jaguars to fill more holes throughout their roster while still having a chance at Walker slightly further down the draft.
It seems that no one is biting on a deal and the Jaguars are going to be forced to make the selection; the market suggests Walker is 60% likely to be the pick.
We aren't in the business of recommending something after the price has moved our way, so let's look at some other ways to win a bet on the premise that Hutchinson does not go first overall.
First overall pick: Ikem Ekwonu (+750)We bet Hutchinson to not be the first overall pick two weeks ago at +225, so we've acquired quite a bit of value. Like a bet on a game, no one knows who's going to win, but when it comes to finding value - mission accomplished, win or lose.
Rumors out of Duval County are that Pederson still wants an offensive lineman to protect Trevor Lawrence, especially after the Jags went wild on wide receivers in free agency. Meanwhile, Baalke has a history of betting on edge rushers in the first round. Who wins that internal argument - either the new Super Bowl-winning head coach or the maligned GM - will decide who goes first overall.
The other less-publicized move on the board is between the top two offensive line prospects. If information is out there that the Jaguars like Walker more than Hutchinson, it would stand to reason the same source thinks they like Ekwonu more than Neal. That means if Pederson gets his way, the best long shot bet is on the offensive tackle out of North Carolina State.
Second overall pick: Aidan Hutchinson (-110)If either Walker or Ekwonu goes first overall, Hutchinson will be a Detroit Lion at No. 2. At -110, that's a better bet than trying to catch up to Walker at -150 to go first.
The fifth overall pick| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Ikem Ekwonu | +300 |
| Evan Neal | +300 |
| Ahmad Gardner | +400 |
| Charles Cross | +450 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | +500 |
| Travon Walker | +750 |
| Jermaine Johnson | +1200 |
| Malik Willis | +2000 |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | +2000 |
| Kyle Hamilton | +2500 |
| Drake London | +3000 |
| Garrett Wilson | +3000 |
| Jameson Williams | +3500 |
With Hutchinson and Walker going one and two, respectively, that leaves the Texans to do something hard to predict. The Jets will wait at No. 4 to select a high-impact defender like Gardner or Thibodeaux.
Meanwhile, the Giants have the fifth and seventh pick, with at least two of Ekwonu, Neal, and Charles Cross available at No. 5. Knowing one will still be available at seventh overall, the Giants can save their offensive lineman selection and make a splash at five.
Sprinkling a unit divided across a group of long shots for this slot is a fun way to bet on an already unpredictable draft. Johnson (12-1), Stingley (20-1), Wilson (30-1), and Williams (35-1) are worth a collective single-unit bet.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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