COVID shows signs of stabilizing in Hamilton
Public health says COVID transmission is stable in Hamilton for the first time in weeks.
The assessment is despite COVID increasingly being detected in Hamilton wastewater, rising numbers of outbreaks in high-risk settings and the more transmissible Omicron subvariant BA.2 accounting for all local infections.
Hamilton COVID-19 transmission appears to have stabilized," stated the assessment Wednesday. The number of reported cases has most recently been decreasing suggesting Hamilton is at or even beyond the peak of transmission."
The report points specifically to a drop in average new cases to 164 a day on April 24 from 181 on April 17. However, this number has been fluctuating and was back up to 178 by the next day on April 25.
Case counts are a significant underestimate because the general public has no access to PCR testing. As a result, the province looks to wastewater surveillance.
In Hamilton, the COVID wastewater signal was at the highest it has ever been in the pandemic as of April 19. It was the only increasing measure on the assessment.
In addition, wastewater surveillance reported by the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table was on the rise. Provincially, the signal had been plateauing for weeks, but potentially started climbing again between April 20 and April 27.
A similar increase can be seen as of April 20 for Central West, which includes Hamilton, Brant, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Waterloo and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph.
The most recently available wastewater data - up to April 20 - continues to show increasing trends," stated the assessment for Hamilton.
It also showed how the more contagious BA.2 has taken over locally, going from 67 per cent of cases by March 26 to 77 per cent by April 2 to 100 per cent now.
Nevertheless, public health concluded transmission was stable for the first time since the weekly assessments started March 30.
One of the key metrics considered was test positivity, which was at 15.3 per cent on April 22 compared to 17.8 per cent on April 15. The daily average number of tests completed at Hamilton assessment centres was described as stable at 336 on April 25, 306 on April 18 and 363 on April 11. These numbers are based on seven-day averages.
In addition, public health looked at the average daily number of Hamiltonians newly admitted to hospital with COVID. This metric was also described as stable at 3.1 on April 24 compared to 4.0 on April 17 and 2.9 on April 10.
Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) said in its latest update on April 21 that it expects hospital admissions to increase until mid-June.
We are likely not at the peak of hospital admissions locally," the hospital network stated at that time.
It's significant because HHS has been reporting overcrowding, with occupancy at 120 per cent at Juravinski Hospital and 114 per cent at Hamilton General Hospital. Ideal is 85 per cent to 90 per cent.
HHS and St. Joseph's Healthcare were caring for 114 COVID patients Wednesday, including eight in the intensive care unit. This number has also been fluctuating - it was at 151 on Monday, 119 on April 21 and 78 on April 13.
In addition, the hospital networks were missing 444 staff who were off work self-isolating - this has decreased from around 600 about two weeks ago.
However, outbreaks in hospitals have been on the rise with six ongoing as of Wednesday.
Four were at Hamilton General with the worst being on Unit 8 West, where 17 have been infected and three have died since April 14. There was also a death on Unit 6 West, where 11 have tested positive since April 22.
In addition, there were outbreaks on Unit 5 West with five cases since April 22 and Unit B2 North with 10 cases since April 14.
HHS also had an active outbreak at St. Peter's Hospital on Maplewood Avenue, which provides complex continuing care, mostly to vulnerable seniors. Patients account for all nine of the cases on Unit 2W since April 19.
Lastly, an outbreak was ongoing at the Charlton Campus of St. Joseph's Healthcare where three have tested positive on the 5MG unit since Tuesday.
Hamilton had a total of 34 ongoing outbreaks in high-risk settings Wednesday with five reporting 20 cases or more.
The largest was at long-term care home Idlewyld Manor, where 40 have been infected since April 18.
Other large ongoing outbreaks included: 32 cases at Shalom Village Nursing Home, 26 at Queen's Garden Long-Term Care Residence, 25 at Summit Heights Retirement Residence and 21 at Villa Italia Retirement Home.
An outbreak was declared over Tuesday at Wentworth Lodge, where 20 had tested positve since April 5.
Seniors' homes account for the majority of the current outbreaks with 20 ongoing. There are also two in shelters, one in correctional facility Arrell Youth Centre and five in group homes and other types of assisted living.
Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com