Flames-Stars series preview: Betting by the numbers
Home-ice advantage has been a topic of conversation in this space all season. The Flames had identical 25-16 records home and away. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the Stars were 27-14 in Dallas and 19-22 on the road.
When you see that sort of drastic discrepancy, the first thing to look at is whether those results were due to variance or anything statistically different between the teams when playing away from home.
| TEAM | HOME XG% | ROAD XG% |
|---|---|---|
| Flames | 57.92% | 51.93% |
| Stars | 53.85% | 48.05% |
The Flames played to the level of their 61% win percentage at home, but on the road, they were only good enough to go 21-20, so they were a little lucky to have that good record. Meanwhile, the Stars underperformed their record at home and were slightly better than their road record would suggest.
The other hot topic for this matchup is the idea of playing "playoff hockey" before the actual postseason begins. However, at 14-11 in their last 25 games, and a five-on-five expected goal share (XG%) of just 51%, it's not like Dallas lit the league on fire to grab a wild-card spot. The Flames closed 15-10 in the same stretch without much to play for.
Series odds| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flames | -235 | -260 | -1.5 (-125) |
| Stars | +190 | +210 | +1.5 (+105) |
Hopefully, you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season and what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we're using even-strength-centric metrics like expected goals, high-danger chance rates, and high-danger conversion rates - both for and against - to try to predict who will play better in the postseason.
Due to some tainted results from before the All-Star break when COVID-19 ravaged lineups, we're weighing the second half more than we normally would. Lastly, to factor in home ice, we'll make use of a formula that includes each team's moneyline win percentage with the league average win probability differential.
True moneylinesThe true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet.
The following is the expected price for each side when the games are played in Calgary (Game 1, 2, 5, and 7), and in Dallas (Game 3, 4, and 6).
| FLAMES | STARS | |
|---|---|---|
| True ML in Calgary | -158 | +158 |
| True ML In Dallas | +122 | -122 |
| Series Price | -147 | +147 |
In the regular season, we'd need at least a 4% edge on an underdog and a 1% edge for the favorite. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario.
| GAME 1/2/5/7 | GAME 3/4/6 | SERIES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flames | -152 | +143 | -141 |
| Stars | +188 | -117 | +175 |
The opening line of the Stars +190 in Game 1 would suggest a bet on Dallas, and logically, if the Stars are going to push the Flames in this series, they'll need to jump on Calgary early, playing with the urgency they've had the last few weeks.
Derivative marketThe following is the probability for each of the eight possible series results, along with a fair price for an exact result bet.
| Series result | Probability / Converted Odds |
|---|---|
| Flames 4-0 | 7.6% / +1208 |
| Flames 4-1 | 17.3% / +477 |
| Flames 4-2 | 15.4% / +549 |
| Flames 4-3 | 19.2% / +420 |
| Stars 4-0 | 4.5% / +2115 |
| Stars 4-1 | 8.4% / +1090 |
| Stars 4-2 | 15.4% / +551 |
| Stars 4-3 | 12.1% / +724 |
Given the inflated price on Calgary across the board, if you're still looking to back the Flames and get a little value, a 4-3 series win is available at +425 - the only fair price on their side.
My numbers show that this series goes at least six games 62.1% of the time. That would require a price shorter than -164 to be worth considering for a bet. Conversely, if you think one team or the other gets it done quickly, +164 is the lowest you should be willing to go on Under 5.5 total games.
Best betThe value for this series lies in the Stars keeping it competitive. A Dallas sweep is a stretch, but at 25-1, stranger things have happened. More realistically, the +750 price for the Stars to win in six would see them closing out the series at home.
For me, this series comes down to what you think about Game 6. If you don't think it sees one, bet the Under 5.5 games. If you think it does, then either Stars 4-2 (+750) or Flames 4-3 (+425) makes sense in the "series correct score" market.
With a simpler, conservative approach, I'll be taking better than even-money with the Stars +1.5 games. I have that bet winning 59.6% of the time, and we're getting paid like it happens just under 50% of the time.
Pick: Stars +1.5 (+105 or better)
Game 1: Stars (+190 or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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