NHL Thursday best bets: 3 home sides worth backing

After a couple of rocky days to open the postseason, we cleaned up with our best bets Wednesday after winning each contest by at least four goals.

We'll look to keep the momentum going with three plays for Thursday night's slate.

We backed the Florida Panthers inside 60 minutes in the series opener. However, they couldn't close out the Washington Capitals despite holding a 2-1 lead well into the third period.

I expect the Panthers to take care of business this time around, but there's more value in getting creative and backing them to win the opening frame.

Everyone knows that Florida has a prolific offense. It generally doesn't waste much time before pouncing on its opponents. The Panthers scored 103 first-period goals during the regular season, putting them eight clear of the second-place Toronto Maple Leafs.

Like Florida, the favored Edmonton Oilers and Minnesota Wild were upset on home soil in their series openers. Those clubs responded by scoring six goals each en route to dominant wins to level their series.

Expect this game to play out similarly. The NHL's No. 1 seed will undoubtedly come out desperate to put the Capitals back in their place, and the fun should start early.

Bet: Panthers 1st period -0.5 (+100)

The New York Rangers didn't play well in Game 1. They looked good for a chunk of the first period, but the Pittsburgh Penguins kept them on their heels for most of the game afterward.

At five-on-five, the Penguins won the expected goal battle 7.5-3.89. That's a 65.82 expected goal share, which is extremely lopsided.

An all-world performance from Igor Shesterkin was the only thing keeping the Rangers alive for so long. That's par for the course with him. Outside of a two-to-three-week stretch when he posted pedestrian numbers, Shesterkin was the NHL's best goaltender from start to finish this season. New York can reliably expect top-tier showings from Shesterkin on a nightly basis.

Although Louis Domingue hung in there in relief last time out, I don't love the Penguins' chances with him between the pipes. I think the Rangers will come out with a better effort after dragging their feet for much of Game 1, and I'm not sure Domingue can hold up.

With respect to the 30-year-old journeyman, he hasn't been an NHL regular since 2019-20. He posted a .882 save percentage in that season while appearing in 16 games.

The gap in caliber between Domingue and Shesterkin is likely as large as you'll see in any playoff contest this campaign. With such an edge in goal and home ice, I think New York will bounce back in this spot.

Bet: Rangers in regulation (+105)

The Colorado Avalanche are in a completely different league than the Nashville Predators. They have more star power, they're deeper, they're faster, and they have an immense edge in goal.

Darcy Kuemper was lights out this season, particularly in the second half. He posted a .928 save percentage over 38 games once the calendar flipped. Only Shesterkin (.936) out-performed Kuemper in that time.

It's a much different story in Nashville. With Juuse Saros out of the mix, the Predators turn to David Rittich and Connor Ingram.

Rittich has been terrible for a while now. Among 74 eligible netminders, he ranked 71st in save percentage and 73rd in high-danger save percentage from Jan. 1 onward. Rittich offers little chance of keeping the Predators in a contest against the high-powered Avalanche, as we saw in Game 1.

While Ingram was solid in the minors this season, there's a big difference in facing AHL competition and the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, and Nazem Kadri.

I expect the Predators to be tighter than they were in the series opener, but it shouldn't matter.

Colorado is so much better across the board that it likely won't have a problem grabbing another early lead and front running for 60 minutes.

Bet: Avalanche 1st period -0.5 (-115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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