For Kingston and the Islands, change is on the way

KINGSTON - Kingston and the Islands is an imperfect bellwether" - and one that is guaranteed a new MPP in the June 2 election.

The riding has been a long-time Liberal stronghold provincially, but in 2018 the New Democrats won a decisive victory with popular local chef Ian Arthur. Whether that was because progressives cast ballots for the candidate most likely to succeed, or because Arthur was well-known and well-liked from working at renowned Chez Piggy, it's a riding the NDP wants to keep.

This time around, the top contenders are familiar faces - the New Democrats are running city councillor and NDP president Mary Rita Holland, the Liberal candidate is former MP Ted Hsu, and the Progressive Conservative candidate is former mayor Gary Bennett.

The thing about Kingston and the Islands is it's always in play," said Tim Abray, a doctoral candidate and teaching assistant in political studies at Queen's University. While it's a riding that tends to go with the government elected, it didn't last time. It's an imperfect bellwether - that's probably a better way of putting it.

Because it's an incumbent NDP seat, but the incumbent is not running again, it turns it into an open contest," he added. I think that they probably believe - and I would suspect they're not wrong - that it's quite possible for them to hang onto it, but it will require a lot of attention and care."

The riding next door, Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, will also have a new representative at Queen's Park with Independent MPP Randy Hillier not seeking re-election. Hillier, who was elected 15 years ago as a Progressive Conservative, was kicked out of that party for his behaviour, and earlier this year charged by police for activities related to the so-called Freedom Convoy" protests.

It's widely believed that PC candidate John Jordan will have an easy victory over Liberal Amanda Pulker-Mok and the NDP's Drew Cumpson. Chelsea Hillier, Randy's daughter, is also running in the riding for the fledgling Populist Ontario party.

Last week, Horwath spent a night in Kingston with two campaign stops. Before testing positive for COVID-19, she had a third visit in the works.

We're absolutely thrilled with Mary Rita Holland as our candidate," Horwath said outside a pharmacy where she was touting the party's pharmacare plan. There's just no doubt that she's not only been a fantastic city councillor here, so the people of Kingston know her well, but she's also been very active with our party and has served as our president for many years."

Hsu, a physicist, financial executive and environmentalist, said he began door knocking last June, and benefits from name recognition across the riding from his time as a member of Parliament.

He believes progressives voted strategically in the last election to stop Doug Ford and the PCs, which favoured the NDP.

For a significant group of voters, (party affiliation) wasn't the overriding concern. They wanted to stop Doug Ford, not necessarily stick with a party," he said, adding he expects many of those votes to go Liberal this time.

Apart from affordable housing, the doctor shortage is also something he's been hearing from voters, with some 20,000 residents without a family physician.

The cost of living is also on people's minds, he added. On doorsteps, he said, a number of voters have shown me their household budget, comparing it to 10 years ago."

Bennett, a long-time councillor and mayor who also cites cost of living concerns, said he's been out every day and the feedback has been very positive and people are ready for a local representative who can bring meaningful change to our community, with a strong advocate at the table."

Holland, an adjunct health studies professor at Queen's, said the riding is naturally left-leaning and noted Arthur's strong win in 2018. After four years with a New Democrat MPP, she believes voters are familiar with the party now."

Hsu has a high profile Kingston, and Holland is also known in the community, noted Abray, who said the outcome of the vote will depend on which person progressives decide to throw their weight behind.

The riding is jammed to the rafters with academics - you have three post-secondary institutions in town," he added.

There is no lack of political conversation in Kingston."

Kristin Rushowy is a Toronto-based reporter covering Ontario politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @krushowy