Avalanche-Oilers series preview: Betting by the numbers
We did it, everybody! Casuals and die-hard hockey fans got what they only recently became aware they needed - a matchup between Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon in the Western Conference Final. Those headliners - who may or may not be on the ice at the same time often - provide the storyline for viewers, but is this the best matchup for bettors?
You're not getting any discounts with the Avalanche. We're still trying to figure out exactly how good they really are. Colorado played the 2021 playoffs and most of this regular season shy of full strength before it returned healthy for this postseason, only to face a pair of opponents with backup goaltenders.
All we can do with the Avs is measure what they've done against the teams in front of them, and their metrics have been impressive so far.
| OPPONENT | 5-ON-5 xG% | 5-ON-5 HDC |
|---|---|---|
| vs. Predators | 59.7% | 43-33 |
| vs. Blues | 59.8% | 61-36 |
The Avalanche have dominated at even strength and are 10-for-29 on the power play. They've been victimized on the penalty kill seven times but potted a shorthanded goal, so they're plus-four in special-teams play over 10 games.
Even though we haven't seen it at the apex of what its enthusiastic backers expect, my rating for Colorado has unsurprisingly increased from 8% above an average team to plus-12.5%.
You're not getting any discounts with the Oilers either. We're always going to have trouble assigning an accurate rating to a team getting otherworldly play from their captain the way they are from McDavid. If we've rarely (if ever) seen this before, then how can we measure it?
Edmonton's even-strength play and mediocre power-play efficiency against Calgary suggested it was fortunate to win the series. But that's before accounting for the fact that virtually all of their high-danger chances were a 10 out of 10 in quality.
The Oilers scored just a 44.5% on my play-driving metrics against Calgary and 53.9% against the Kings in Round 1. As a result, their rating has dropped from where it was at the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, oddsmakers are giving them considerably more credit than the Blues got before their series with Colorado. However, on the whole, there isn't much separating the Blues and Oilers.
Of course, except for McDavid.
Series odds| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | +150 | +200 | +1.5 (-105) |
| Avalanche | -175 | -250 | -1.5 (-115) |
Hopefully, you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season and what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we're using even-strength metrics like expected goals and high-danger chance rates, as well as high-danger conversion rates - both for and against - to try to predict who'll play better in the postseason.
True moneylinesThe true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet.
The following is the expected price for each side when the contests are played in Colorado (Games 1, 2, 5, and 7) and Edmonton (Games 3, 4, and 6).
| AVALANCHE | OILERS | |
|---|---|---|
| True ML in Colorado | -180 | +180 |
| True ML in Edmonton | -114 | +114 |
| True Series Price | -237 | +237 |
We'd need at least a 4% edge on an underdog and a 1% edge for the favorite in the regular season. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario:
| GAME 1/2/5/7 | GAME 3/4/6 | SERIES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | +216 | +134 | +289 |
| Avalanche | -173 | -109 | -226 |
Sure enough, based on our numbers relative to the odds, the pricing is fair for Colorado - a relatively rare situation for a favorite that is widely considered the best team remaining in the playoffs. That's due to the market's interest in backing McDavid's Oilers.
Derivative series marketThe following is the probability for each of the eight possible series results, along with a fair price for an exact result bet.
| Series result | Probability/Converted odds |
|---|---|
| Avalanche 4-0 | 11.7%/+753 |
| Avalanche 4-1 | 21.6%/+363 |
| Avalanche 4-2 | 18.5%/+440 |
| Avalanche 4-3 | 18.4%/+443 |
| Oilers 4-0 | 2.8%/+3490 |
| Oilers 4-1 | 5.8%/+1611 |
| Oilers 4-2 | 10.9%/+821 |
| Oilers 4-3 | 10.2%/+879 |
Given that our overall numbers line up closely with series and game-to-game pricing, it should come as no surprise that it's tough to find strict value in any of the exact series scores.
Best betsEdmonton has so many variables. Only now are we getting to the issue of Mike Smith, who can be standing on his head or sitting on it at any given moment. The best version of the Oilers can knock off anyone and do so quickly, but they can also burn out just as fast if McDavid isn't all-world and Smith gives up soft goals on repeat.
The Avalanche are more consistent - the steady Y-factor to the Oilers' 'X.' We're more likely to get fair value with the Avs in Game 1 and the series, but the best bet on the board plays on the bipolar nature of Edmonton. At +125, under 5.5 total games for the series provides some value since so much could go right for the Oilers (as we thought it would against the Flames). But it could also go very wrong.
Pick: Under 5.5 total games (+125)
Avalanche Game 1 moneyline (-175 or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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