Rangers-Hurricanes Game 7 best bet: Can Carolina overcome goaltending gap?

Given the Hurricanes' results during these Stanley Cup Playoffs, this article could be really short. The home team is 6-0 in this series and 13-0 in games involving Carolina in the postseason. So, the headline could simply read: "Take the Canes and be done with it."

The longer version requires a philosophical debate, though.

Coming into the playoffs, we focus on even-strength play from the regular season with more weight given to the post-All-Star break schedule. Once we get to the second round, first-round metrics are added to the equation.

All of that information pointed to the Hurricanes driving play at five-on-five during this series to a significant enough degree to overcome outlier factors and be worth a hefty series price. The Canes were the better team during the regular season, and the Rangers were fortunate to survive the first round, as they saw the Penguins accumulate an outrageous 59 more high-danger chances at even-strength across seven games.

Here's how the five-on-five metrics look through six games in Round 2:

Despite the disparity in scoring opportunities, the Hurricanes have nine goals to the Rangers' eight during five-on-five play. And despite the 29 more scoring chances in high-danger areas, Carolina has the same number of goals as New York in those circumstances: four.

The metrics have done what we asked of them; they predicted who would be the better team during this series. But it hasn't translated enough on the ice.

There are two categories of play that can become a potential outlier - special teams and goaltending.

The other Eastern Conference semifinal saw those favor the Lightning, and it resulted in the betting underdog pulling off an unlikely series sweep. The short-term variance of Andrei Vasilevskiy's performance, combined with a plus-3 goal differential in just four games worth of special-teams play, was too much for the Panthers to overcome.

In this series, the special-teams play has only slightly favored the Rangers. This means the other aforementioned outlier has been the significant difference in keeping New York alive.

Igor Shesterkin is allowing just 4.9% of the Hurricanes' even-strength high-danger chances to get past him. As is often the case with goaltenders, he's also been the prime reason the Rangers have killed all but one penalty they've taken in the six games.

The Hurricanes haven't been able to make use of their inherent advantages in this series, and if there were seven more games to flush out that edge with a larger sample size, then I'd be comfortable laying a price with the better team. However, we're down to one contest to decide who advances, and the last we saw of Antti Raanta, he was getting pulled after giving up a pair of soft goals to start Game 6.

Just as concerning was the body language from his teammates that suggested a loss of faith in their backup goaltender. The playoffs started well enough for Raanta, but it's possible a heavy workload is taking its toll.

Whether it's a pressure-packed 60 minutes or the heightened nerves should Game 7 extend beyond regulation, I'd rather take the plus-money on a goaltender I can rely on in a low-event single game, even if I know the favorite is likely to generate the better scoring chances.

Pick: Rangers moneyline (+120)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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