Conn Smythe Trophy odds update: Adding some Cale to the diet
"Why aren't you taking any of the favorites?!"
Maybe we're all getting smarter about finding value, because I didn't get any tweets or DMs before the playoffs began asking why we didn't take our pick of the likes of the Panthers, Maple Leafs, Penguins, and Bruins. Each of those teams bowed out early, and out of the few long shots that we entertained, we landed a big fish: Conn Smythe candidate Connor McDavid (+3000), now in his first conference finals.
Twelve of the 16 teams and their numerous would-be candidates have been sent home, which allows us to narrow our focus and continue to maximize a playoff MVP position in the marketplace.
Conn Smythe Trophy odds| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | +350 |
| Cale Makar | +450 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | +550 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +650 |
| Connor McDavid | +650 |
| Igor Shesterkin | +1000 |
*not listing players with odds 20-1 or longer
There are very clean paths to victory in this market right now, and I'm listing only six players to make a point. With two rounds and three series to go, these are the only players who can win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
The top of the board features two Avalanche, the favorites to win the Stanley Cup at +105, which translates to an expected win probability of slightly less than 50% after the sportsbooks apply their hold. Makar and MacKinnon were each +400 before the second round. After getting one step closer to the Cup by beating the Blues, their odds have barely changed, proving there was no rush to bet either before Round 2.
Only two players on Colorado can win the Conn Smythe, and they're equally likely at this point. As a result, their win probability for the award should be around 25% each - which means a fair price for a bet on either would be +300.
We've already got a McDavid ticket in our pocket. I've long said that his MVP odds need to mirror the Oilers' odds for the Stanley Cup, and there's a reasonable case to be made that he could still win the award without the Cup finding its way back to Canada.
I'm ready to argue that Shesterkin should be getting the same treatment relative to the Rangers' championship price. New York is now +625 to win the Cup, while Shesterkin is 10-1 to win the Conn Smythe. The Rangers need to knock off the two-time defending champs, then either the Avs or McDavid's Oilers, and the only way that happens is continued standout play from New York's goaltender.
Finally, there's Tampa, with last year's winner, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Nikita Kucherov, who is five points clear of the Lightning's next leading scorer. Victor Hedman (+2000) is, of course, no slouch, but it's unlikely that his play will eclipse his teammates' in the next two series.
Cale Makar (+450)MacKinnon has the hat trick and the dramatic end-to-end goal against St. Louis that will be replayed repeatedly for the next four weeks. However, any voter worth his credential should remember that the Blues won that game.
Makar has actually been the better, more impactful player throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs so far. He's tied for the team lead in scoring (with MacKinnon), and he leads all defensemen in expected goals share (xG%). He's been on the ice for 25 of his team's goals, which is the third-most in the playoffs, behind just McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
That brings us to his immediate (albeit shared) task: slowing down the Oilers' stars. If the Avalanche advance, it likely means they've kept Edmonton's dynamic duo at a dull roar, and Makar will get a ton of credit at the forefront of Colorado's defense.
MacKinnon's flashy play in Game 5 against St. Louis won't be forgotten, and his style in those electric moments is the reason he's become the favorite in this market. After another two series, however, there's value in the idea that Makar's multifaceted impact will attract enough attention to make this bet worth it.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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