Feeling blue? Polls say Tories on track to win Ontario, if not Hamilton
Once upon a time - during the last COVID-19 lockdown, for instance - opponents of the incumbent Progressive Conservative provincial government were forecasting an election of change on June 2.
People were angry about pandemic loss of life. About global warming. About provincial interference in local decisions, like the unpopular threat to force Hamilton to expand its urban boundary.
But if you believe the latest polls, the looming provincial vote is not likely to turf the incumbent Tories or radically change the political colour of many Hamilton ridings.
Just about all the reputable polls are calling for the Progressive Conservatives to win another majority, or at least get very close," said Henry Jacek, a professor emeritus of political science at McMaster University. But there could always be a few surprises."
Both the Liberals and NDP argue voters in close races can still prevent a second blue majority. Some voters may also punish or reward Tory leader Doug Ford for his pandemic decisions - but Jacek said the PCs won a gamble by removing most COVID restrictions ahead of the campaign.
He had a plan that relied on the virus co-operating - and so far, he lucked out," said Jacek, who suggested polls would look different if spring COVID infections had overwhelmed hospitals. Many people wanted a return to some kind of normal.' That's what he offered."
In 2018, the Tories won a majority government that excluded most of Hamilton, where just one Progressive Conservative was elected compared to four New Democrats.
This election, the Tories appear to be polling better in ridings like Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, but Jacek said it will still be tough to dislodge local NDP incumbents.
The only true toss-up" riding looks like Hamilton East-Stony Creek, where incumbent Paul Miller was turfed from the NDP just before the campaign over allegations he joined an anti-Muslim Facebook group.
The 71-year-old denies the allegations, has sued the NDP and is running as an independent. But some polls show Tory Neil Lumsden slightly ahead of NDP candidate Zaigham Butt and Liberal city councillor Jason Farr.
That is really a tough one to call," said Jacek. I wouldn't be surprised if the winner came out with 30 per cent or less of the total vote, which would be astounding."
Locally, voters could be swayed by hot-button Hamilton controversies like the threat of a forced urban boundary expansion or a wave of pandemic deaths in long-term-care homes, including 44 during an outbreak at Grace Villa.
Or maybe notable political promises will catch your eye - like a sweeping rent control vow from the NDP, the Liberal's buck-a-ride" transit pitch or the Tories much-debated focus on highways.
Here's a look back at some of the Hamilton election campaign's memorable moments:
Pop-up protests and an arrest
The Tory government enraged some residents earlier this year by threatening to overturn a Hamilton decision to grow within its existing urban boundaries, rather than expand into scarce rural farmland.
Residents have since staged weekly Stop Sprawl pop-up rallies" across the city during the campaign. Last Thursday, another 25 people protested outside a campaign event for Tory leader Ford at the Hamilton airport. Lawyer and vocal government critic Caryma Sa'd was arrested for alleged trespassing outside the event.
Environment Hamilton's Lynda Lukasik said she is heartened by that visible commitment to fighting sprawl - even as polls suggest an election outcome I don't even want to think about."
The fight for labour
Ford challenged NDP Leader Andrea Horwath on her own turf May 18 when he visited Hamilton Centre to announce endorsements from several construction and trade unions. On Tuesday, an association for personal support workers in Ontario also endorsed the Tories.
Independent candidate Paul Miller, meanwhile, took shots at his former party leader by suggesting during a debate that the NDP is not the party of labour anymore."
Horwath dismissed such arguments, noted the New Democrats still have the backing of the province's largest labour organizations, including the Ontario Federation of Labour and the United Steel Workers.
#NotOneSeat
Grassroots opponents of the PC government kick-started the #NotOneSeat movement in an effort to rally strategic support for the candidates considered to have the best shot at unseating a Tory incumbent.
In Hamilton, the Flamborough-Glanbrook arm of the group has backed NDPer Allison Cillis as the unity candidate" with the best shot of beating Tory incumbent Donna Skelly.
That said, political parties are not exactly teaming up to oust Ford. It feels like the NDP and the Liberals are fighting each other more than they are making the case for change," said Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner in an interview.
Debate no-shows
When asked to defend their party's record in local riding election debates, most Hamilton Tory candidates did not participate - or were instructed not to by the party. Flamborough-Glanbrook incumbent Donna Skelly was a local exception.
The decision to keep candidates quiet was likely strategic, but still an affront to democracy, said Jacek. The PC party figures it has got more to lose if it lets their local candidates say what they want to say."
Matthew Van Dongen is a transportation and environment reporter at for The Spectator. mvandongen@thespec.com