Is run for Hamilton mayor Andrea Horwath’s next move?

By her own admission, Andrea Horwath has heard the same question from city residents for years: Will the longtime politician and proud Hamilton booster run for mayor?

Media and political pundits raised the notion as far back as 2014, just five years into Horwath's leadership of the provincial New Democratic Party. She admitted ahead of the 2018 election she was asked the question almost every time" she was in her hometown.

I'm not going to say never," she said at the time, before leading the party to Opposition status with 40 seats, the NDP's best showing since 1990.

The question didn't go away - as anyone who searches Horwath's name on Twitter can see following her post-election announcement Thursday that she is stepping down as NDP leader.

But is now the time to seek the mayoral chair?

Horwath wasn't ready to speak about her future the day after an exhausting, emotional campaign that saw her final shot at becoming provincial premier dashed by a large Progressive Conservative majority.

But when asked a few days before the vote, she didn't squelch the possibility, either. You know me. Hamiltonians know me. I never stop fighting for people," she said. I will always fight for our everyday working people. That's who I am."

Fans call Horwath smart, progressive and passionate, with built-in knowledge about how both levels of government work given her early time as a downtown councillor starting in 1997.

If she did want to consider it at some point, it would be an amazing opportunity for Hamilton," said longtime supporter Denise Christopherson, CEO of YWCA Hamilton. It would also put us in the history books, because we would actually elect our first woman as mayor of Hamilton."

But jumping from the provincial campaign right into the municipal contest, which is already underway, would be a tough call," observes McMaster political scientist Peter Graefe.

It wouldn't be the first time, though. Take, for instance, retired New Democrat MP David Christopherson (Denise's husband), who made a bid for the mayor's chair in 2003 after serving in the Ontario legislature but fell short.

He had more time to plan a strategy and raise funds than Horwath's potential abrupt transition, Graefe says. It's a bit different to be running to be premier and then suddenly that didn't work. Do you run for mayor?"

So far, only two mayoral candidates have officially thrown their hats into the Oct. 24 election: Keanin Loomis, former chamber of commerce president and CEO, and Ejaz Butt, an ex-taxi union official. Incumbent Fred Eisenberger hasn't announced election plans, while ex-mayor Bob Bratina says he's running but hasn't filed nomination papers. Would-be candidates have until Aug. 19 to register.

Should Horwath take the plunge, her candidacy would be promising" thanks to her name recognition and her NDP support base, Graefe says.

Horwath isn't the only elected official at a crossroads after Thursday's vote.

In winning Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Tory Neil Lumsden dispatched Paul Miller, who held the riding for 15 years, and Jason Farr, a sitting city councillor of 12 years.

Miller ran as an independent after the NDP ousted him over allegations he'd joined an anti-Muslim Facebook group. He has denied this and is suing his former party.

With under seven per cent of the vote, the Binbrook resident wound up in fourth place. Miller said he hasn't ruled out city politics, noting he served as a Stoney Creek councillor prior to amalgamation. I'm certainly going to do some thinking about what direction I want to go in."

United Steelworkers Local 1005 endorsed Miller, a former Stelco worker, as an independent despite the national union's decision to publicly back the NDP.

If Miller runs municipally, he would probably" have local steelworkers stumping for him again, said Ron Wells, who heads Local 1005. He's a good friend to the steelworkers and I think he still has quite a bit of support out there."

That counts for something, Graefe said. Nonetheless, Miller's dismal finish Thursday night also showed the limits" of that union endorsement. But obviously, municipal politics is a different ball of wax."

After Thursday's defeat, Farr said he'd immediately turn his attention back to Ward 2 matters but wasn't ready to say what his next move might be. In terms of the pending municipal election, I don't have an answer for that yet."

Cameron Kroetsch, the sole registered candidate for Ward 2, says Farr's potential plans aren't a factor" in his second crack at the downtown seat. We've been dedicated to building a campaign since early January," said the business operator and former chair of the city's LGBTQ advisory committee. And we're going to keep the movement going."

Farr has the incumbent advantage in Ward 2 but there could be a price to pay" for taking a stab at higher office, Graefe noted. I think, in part, because citizens react badly to politicians who didn't seem to value the mandate that they were given."

Matthew Van Dongen is a reporter at The Spectator. mvandongen@thespec.com

Teviah Moro is a reporter at The Spectator. tmoro@thespec.com