‘Decreasing level of trust’ led to all-time low voter turnout in Hamilton

More eligible voters in Hamilton decided to stay away from the polls Thursday night than chose to vote, setting a historically low bar for voter turnout in a provincial election.

Voter turnout in Hamilton ridings ranged from a dismal low of 37 per cent to 48.5 per cent.

Even the night's big winners, like NDP leader Andrea Horwath who captured more than 57 per cent of votes in Hamilton Centre, won their seats with significantly less support than they had in the previous election.

Hamilton Centre, which historically has the city's lowest voter turnout, posted the worst turnout of any area riding with only 37 per cent of eligible voters casting ballots. In 2018, nearly 49 per cent of voters showed up at polling stations.

Voters were not engaged in this election," said Clifton van der Linden, a political science professor at McMaster University and CEO of Vox Pop Labs, which provides election data and projections for Torstar. There was very little interest in the election from even before the writs were drawn up and it is a sign of the decreasing level of trust people have in their public institutions."

Elections Ontario is reporting that a mere 43 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots, a historic low for the province. The last time voter turnout dipped below 50 per cent was in the comparatively sleepy 2011 provincial election.

In Hamilton, every riding saw voter turnout tumble.

In Hamilton-East Stoney Creek, just over 40 per cent of voters cast ballots, compared to 53 per cent in 2018. Hamilton Mountain also posted a 40 per cent turnout, significantly down from the 56 per cent during the last go-round.

Just over 47 per cent of voters cast ballots in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, compared to 62 per cent in 2018.

Flamborough-Glanbrook also saw a depressed voter turn out with a 46 per cent voter turnout, well down from the 60 per cent in the last election.

This was not a competitive election, and when an election is not perceived to be competitive, that tends to result in a lower voter turnout," said Randy Besco, a University of Toronto political science professor. The conservatives were well ahead in the polls before the election and that never changed. So a lot of voters will look at that and decide well, my vote won't change anything.' Whereas in a competitive election, voters will feel their vote might make all the difference."

That voter apathy was evident even for high profile candidates. Horwath, who is stepping down as NDP leader, won Hamilton Centre with 16,690 votes, dwarfing second-place finisher Sarah Bokhari of the Tories by nearly 12,000 votes.

Those numbers are well back of Howarth's 2018 vote count, which approached nearly 24,000, beating her Progressive Conservative rival by a whopping 18,000 votes.

Besco said the Doug Ford Tories also had a few built-in advantages heading into the election: It was the first time Ford's government was seeking re-election, and there is less appetite for change than there was for the previous Liberal regime which had been in power for over a decade.

The campaigns did little to energize voters, said van der Linden. Although the majority of Ontario voters did not cast ballots for Ford's party, Liberal leader Steven Del Duca failed to capitalize on that dissatisfaction to win seats. Del Duca was defeated in his own riding, and the Liberals failed to win the 12 seats needed to achieve official party status in Ontario.

The Progressive Conservative campaign of silence, which saw local candidates across Ontario refusing media interviews and avoiding all-candidates debates, also played a roll in suppressing the vote, van der Linden said.

It was a very safe campaign, and those candidates did not have to worry about making unforced errors, saying something stupid that might derail the campaign," van der Linden said. What I worry about is that this will become entrenched in elections going forward."

The voter turnout is the lowest point in a decades-long decline, which allows parties to win government with mandates that represent an increasingly smaller fraction of Ontario voters.

In 1971, more than 73 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots. By 1990 that dipped to 64 per cent and has been falling steadily ever since.

Grant LaFleche is an investigative reporter with The Spectator. Reach him via email: glafleche@torstar.ca