Five things Doug Ford’s election win might mean for housing

Exclusionary zoning, transit-oriented communities, streamlining development approvals, attracting more skilled labour and minister's zoning orders.

These are among the key issues that housing experts say should or will be front and centre for Premier Doug Ford's re-elected PC government.

With the election win we saw resounding support for (the government's) commitment to build 1.5 million more homes in the next 10 years to address the housing affordability crisis," says David Wilkes, president and CEO of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), which works with government on issues impacting development, building and home ownership in the GTA.

Here are five key issues the new government faces:

Exclusionary Zoning

A provincial government task force report this year identified exclusionary zoning, which leads to large areas in cities that allow only single-family homes, as a major impediment to the construction of more affordable missing middle" housing such as duplexes or townhouses. But Housing Minister Steve Clark said towns and cities aren't ready to change the zoning.

David Amborski, a professor in the School of Urban and Regional Planning at the Toronto Metropolitan University (formerly Ryerson University), said the province shouldn't give up on encouraging municipalities to provide inclusionary zoning.

It's something the province should address to increase that (missing middle) type of built form and provide more housing options," said Amborski. The city of Toronto is looking at it and has a study (on missing middle housing and inclusionary zoning). Ottawa has moved forward on it." Vancouver and Edmonton have taken steps to provide inclusionary zoning, as have cities in the U.S including Portland, Minneapolis and Seattle, Amborski pointed out.

Minister's Zoning Orders

Since taking power in 2018, Doug Ford's government has used dozens of minister's zoning orders, or MZOs, which give the government virtual veto powers under the Ontario Planning Act to override municipal council decisions and bylaws. MZOs can't be appealed.

In February, a Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) report pointed out that 48 MZOs have been requested in its jurisdiction since 2020, with 34 approved by the province. The TRCA complained that the fast-tracking limits its ability to properly assess flood risks and natural hazards for developments in its jurisdiction.

The province said MZOs are a way to expedite residential units including affordable housing, as well as long-term-care facilities and large infrastructure projects.

In its March housing bill, the province introduced a community infrastructure and housing accelerator, a separate process for MZOs, where municipalities would need to approve a council resolution and do local consultations before asking the province to OK projects, including affordable housing.

But Shauna Brail, associate professor at the Institute for Management and Innovation, University of Toronto Mississauga, said the election will embolden" the Ford government to rely on MZOs, even in the face of opposition from municipal governments and community stakeholders.

The uneven application of MZOs, and reliance on them as a tool for overriding municipal government decision-making, is a poor substitute for good planning," Brail said.

Skilled Labour

Though the province's goal of building 1.5 million more homes in the next 10 years to help housing affordability is laudable, experts say a dire shortage of skilled tradespeople threatens the plan.

A number of skilled tradespeople are about to retire, said BILD's Wilkes, who believes there are three solutions to the shortages.

The province needs to continue to work with the federal government to ensure our immigration policy recognizes the need for more skilled tradespeople and is structured in that way" he said.

The province also needs to continue to invest in skilled trades programs in Ontario colleges, he added.

In addition, there needs to be a different conversation" going on about skilled trades, he said.

For example, one of the key recommendations from the province's Housing Affordability Task Force report in February was the need to promote skilled trades as a career path.

Changing that conversation families are having with their children - not only are university degrees a very valuable way to earn a living, but so are the skilled trades," Wilkes said.

Transit-Oriented Communities

Transit-oriented communities, or TOCs, are new, large, typically mixed-use transit hubs where there is substantial housing planned around stations, many of them subway stops. For example, the Ontario Line, which will run through Toronto, has several subway stops downtown that call for large condo towers, retail, parks and recreation centres where people can live, work and shop at one location.

But some of these TOCs have proved controversial including some proposed stops in Toronto and two in Markham/Richmond Hill. The latter two call for condo towers that exceed the height and number of units called for in local planning documents, which has upset local politicians, planners and residents.

Matti Siemiatycki, professor of geography and planning at University of Toronto's school of cities, said Ford's resounding win means the province is going to see a super charging" of the government's housing agenda, including TOCs.

They've made a big push in that direction, particularly a focus on density around stations," said Siemiatycki. There's less of an emphasis on really high-quality design and more on putting in place ... super density around stations."

Streamlined development

Doug Ford's government has taken steps to try to make it easier to build in Ontario. For example, in January it announced $45 million for a Streamline Development Approval Fund" to help the province's 39 largest cities and towns modernize, streamline and accelerate" housing development applications.

The money can be used, for example, to launch online systems that would make it simpler for developers to navigate the approvals process. BILD studies show it takes 10 to 11 years to complete development projects - far too long, the organization says, with municipal approvals being one of the chief reasons for the delays.

Steps can be taken to ease the bottlenecks, BILD said, including various municipal departments looking at applications at the same time, rather than sequentially, municipal councils delegating more authority to staff and digitizing the applications process which allows more efficient review and dialogue between developers and municipalities.

But David Hulchanski, a professor of housing and community development at the University of Toronto, calls the streamlining of development applications just a talking point."

He said there are already many thousands" of housing units in the Greater Toronto approved and waiting for developers to build on.

The zoning has all been approved. They (developers) can walk in and get their building permits but they're not (building)," Hulchanski said.

He said there's a claim that cities aren't approving enough new units, but often it's more a matter of developers waiting for the right market conditions.

Market conditions are number one affecting supply," Hulchanski says, adding the housing market is a bit slower now.

Donovan Vincent is a housing reporter based in Toronto. Follow him on Twitter: @donovanvincent