NHL Monday best bets: Going under in Edmonton

We have an elimination game to look forward to on Monday night. While nothing stands out in terms of a side, there appears to be value with the total and player props.

Let's dig deeper with three best bets for Game 4.

Avalanche (-125) @ Oilers (+105)

This series started off in the most explosive way possible. The Colorado Avalanche piled up the goals and took a huge lead over the Edmonton Oilers in Game 1, only for the latter to fill the net in the third period and make things interesting before an empty-netter eventually put the game away at 8-6.

The last two games have been much, much, different. Colorado followed that up by blanking Edmonton 4-0 while holding them to just 1.22 expected goals across all situations. Game 3 also went under the number and the two sides combined for only 3.75 expected goals at five-on-five.

Simply put, they haven't been trading chances and displaying the fireworks we thought we were going to get, especially after Game 1.

I'm not sure that's going to change now. Edmonton is playing for their season on home soil. Win or lose, they'll surely be trying to tighten the screws and make things muddy as opposed to letting the Avalanche rip them apart in transition.

Each side is also missing real firepower. Nazem Kadri is out for at least the series after being boarded by Evander Kane. Kadri has amassed 91 points through 84 games this season, so that's a huge blow to their second line.

Kane was suspended a game for the hit. He's netted 13 goals through 15 playoff games this season.

Considering it is an elimination game, both teams are missing key offensive contributors, and Pavel Francouz hasn't skipped a beat after taking over for Darcy Kuemper, I don't see this one going nuclear.

Bet: Under 6.5 (+115)

Mikko Rantanen over 3.5 shots (+115)

Rantanen figures to be one of the prime beneficiaries of Kadri's absence. Kadri is such a key figure for the Avs: he can help navigate through the neutral zone and facilitates a lot of the offense as a shooter and a passer. With him out of the lineup, more responsibility falls on Rantanen's shoulders.

He doesn't have a star to help him anchor the second line, which surely means more of the offense will flow through him at even strength. There will also be more shots to go around on the man advantage as we saw last time out. Rantanen played a team-leading 8:28 on the power play and was a key trigger man. He recorded five shots on goal on the PP alone, which also led the Avalanche.

Rantanen also has an impressive track record against the Oilers. He has generated at least four shots in four of five meetings this season, and he attempted six in the lone game he fell short.

Evan Bouchard over 2.5 shots (-106)

Bouchard continues to be a prime target each and every night. He is one of the most efficient shot generators in the NHL and the Avalanche have given up volume to the position all season long.

He has averaged 3.3 shots and 6.8 attempts against the Avalanche through five meetings while seeing somewhat inconsistent ice time. He played fewer than 14 minutes last time out and still led the team in shot attempts (seven) while hitting his over.

That's nothing new for Bouchard; no player on the Oilers has generated more attempts in this series.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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