Live NHL series bets: Finding value after Game 3s

In the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we checked on the series after four games, often finding a split series or a 3-1 advantage that was potentially precarious. This time, we're doing our check-in before Game 4 of the Conference Finals for fear of seeing one series close out after the minimum number of games.

5-on-5 play

The Avalanche seem poised to make quick work of the Oilers, something that we saw conceptual value in before this high-variance series started. The Avs have won the three games in three decidedly different ways - high-scoring thrill-ride, shutout, and theft.

Saturday's game saw the Oilers score immediately to get ahead, kill a 5-minute major penalty, and rack up 14 high-danger scoring chances at even-strength to just three for the Avalanche. They lost anyway. Colorado converted one of those three chances, while Edmonton went 0-for-14.

Using just the scoring chance creation metrics from Game 3, the team with the Oilers' profile would win that game 72.8% of the time. Had Edmonton won that contest, we'd likely think more highly of the team's chances to force this series back to Alberta for Game 6.

The market gives the Oilers about a 50% chance to win Game 4 as it is, but claiming that victory - plus Game 5 back in Colorado - just to go back to Edmonton means there's nothing worth adding for the Oilers in any of the in-series markets.

5-on-5 play

The even-strength play in this series might surprise, given the sharp-shooting Rangers' success in converting their high-danger chances (HDC) overall. If you look at each power play as a high-danger chance in and of itself, New York has seven goals on 36 prime scoring opportunities - a moderately high rate.

Having given up 11 goals in three total games of this series, Andrei Vasilevskiy has let four non-HDC/PP goals slip past him. But he turned things around on Sunday, improving his -3.1 GSAx (goals saved above expectation) in New York to 1.21 GSAx in Game 3.

Meanwhile, Igor Shesterkin is holding up his end of the goaltending duel bargain, limiting Tampa Bay's shooters to a 2.5% conversion rate on their high-danger chances at even-strength. Luckily for the Lightning, their power play saved the day in Game 3, launching them into a tie after going down 2-0, and Ondrej Palat's game-winner kept this series up in the air.

Game 4's moneyline price again sees the Lightning as significant favorites, priced at higher than 60% to win the game and even the series at two. Given the discrepancies in the expected goals (XG) that favor Tampa, it's easy to see why the team's favored despite the Rangers getting the best of the goalie matchup.

The same logic applies now as from the before the series, and it's comforting for the Lightning that Game 3 was the type of matchup that many expected before Game 1. If Tampa can get goaltending from its all-world netminder to match the goaltending from New York's all-world netminder, then the Lightning should prevail - especially since we know not to dismiss Vasilevskiy as a series progresses.

The only thing that's changed since the first game of this series is that there's less time for the Lightning to come back and win, but that's reflected in the price that's now being offered at plus-money. If the Lightning take Game 4 at home - a probability if the averages remain consistent - there will be a massive swing back towards the pre-series betting line of Tampa Bay -175.

Bet: Lightning to win series (+120)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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