Best bets to lead the Stanley Cup Final in goals, points
The hockey world can now focus on one series: the Stanley Cup Final between the Lightning and the Avalanche. By now, hockey bettors have likely weighed in on who they think will win and how they are betting this matchup. They have likely set up a position in the Conn Smythe Trophy market as well. But wait, there's more.
While player prop markets exist throughout the postseason, the Stanley Cup Final markets garner a singular focus.
Total goals series leader| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen | +500 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +500 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +650 |
| Steven Stamkos | +700 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | +850 |
| Nazem Kadri | +1200 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | +1500 |
| Cale Makar | +2000 |
| Ondrej Palat | +2200 |
| Andre Burakovsky | +3500 |
| Brandon Hagel | +3500 |
| Corey Perry | +4000 |
| JT Compher | +4000 |
| Victor Hedman | +4500 |
| Alex Killorn | +5000 |
| Anthony Cirelli | +5000 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | +5000 |
| Brayden Point | +5000 |
| Devon Toews | +5000 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | +5000 |
| Nick Paul | +5000 |
| Ross Colton | +5000 |
| Alex Newhook | +10000 |
| Bowen Byram | +10000 |
| Josh Manson | +10000 |
| Pat Maroon | +10000 |
| Ryan McDonagh | +10000 |
With between four and seven games to be played in this series, and a Game 1 total set at six goals, the expected average number of goals for this series is between 24 and 42. So the question is: How many individual goals will be needed to lead the series?
Here are the recent Stanley Cup Final goal leaders and their total:
| YEAR | PLAYER | GOALS |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Nikita Kucherov | 3 |
| 2020 | Brayden Point | 5 |
| 2019 | Ryan O'Reilly | 5 |
| 2018 | Alex Ovechkin/Devante Smith-Pelly/Reilly Smith | 3 |
| 2017 | Jake Guentzel | 4 |
| 2016 | Six players tied | 2 |
| 2015 | Five players tied | 2 |
| 2014 | Five players tied | 2 |
As you can see, three is usually all that's needed to grab a tie for the lead in series goals. That low number means that almost anyone is capable of cashing a ticket for you in this market.
Best bets
The favorites are atop the board for a reason, but we'll want to throw a few darts further down the list since it's possible that one or two multi-goal games might be all it takes for an outlier result. Brayden Point would normally be among the favorites. He's expected to return at some point in this series, and even if that doesn't happen until the third game, that still gives him a chance to score four times.
The Lightning plan to win low-event, low-scoring games, but when that doesn't work for them, it'll be the Avalanche's depth at forward that can score. With Tampa's checking line playing close attention to Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog, there's room for someone else to have a big series. Seven other Avs have scored between five and six goals this postseason. Of that group, Artturi Lehkonen (50-1) is the forward with the longest odds, which makes him the best value.
For Tampa, it can get its necessary goals via the man advantage. Lehkonen's former teammate, Corey Perry, has the fourth-most ice time on the Lightning power play. Considering his 40-1 price, Perry's a better bet to score a few times than many ahead of him on the board.
Total points series leader| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | +350 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +400 |
| Cale Makar | +450 |
| Mikko Rantanen | +600 |
| Steven Stamkos | +750 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | +900 |
| Nazem Kadri | +1200 |
| Victor Hedman | +1200 |
| Brayden Point | +1500 |
| Devon Toews | +3000 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | +4500 |
| Ondrej Palat | +4500 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | +5000 |
| Alex Killorn | +10000 |
| Alex Newhook | +10000 |
| Bowen Byram | +10000 |
| Andre Burakovsky | +10000 |
| Brandon Hagel | +10000 |
| Corey Perry | +10000 |
| JT Compher | +10000 |
| Anthony Cirelli | +10000 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | +10000 |
| Nick Paul | +10000 |
| Ross Colton | +10000 |
| Josh Manson | +10000 |
| Pat Maroon | +10000 |
| Ryan McDonagh | +10000 |
Obviously, this market adds assists to the goals market above, and the odds are adjusted accordingly. Most notably, top-tier defensemen like Cale Makar and Victor Hedman are given a better chance of leading the series in points than goals.
In the last 10 years, the points leader in the Stanley Cup Final has needed between five and nine points to cash tickets for their bettors. That's a larger amount than the goals market, meaning the favorites are more likely to lead the way.
Best bets
Makar (+450) comes into this series with four more points than MacKinnon amongst the Avalanche throughout the playoffs but is lower than his teammate on the board. Makar has a five-point game under his belt and could realistically get to nine points in this series.
Hedman is second on Tampa Bay in power-play points and is 12-1 in this market. With the big Swede playing the point on the power play, the return of Brayden Point could mean a couple of extra assists on shots coming in from the blue line, as Point is a key cog in the middle of the Lightning man advantage. Nikita Kucherov's power-play goals will likely come from Hedman's one-timer setups, so he's somewhat neutralized there. This series could shape up a lot like their first-round meeting with the Maple Leafs when Hedman had seven points.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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