NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds, early values
There are still two months before the start of the NFL season, but it's never early to speculate on easily the most bizarre and unpredictable award on the board: The Comeback Player of the Year.
What makes this award so strange? For one, there are no clear criteria for winning it. Most players are coming back from injury - six of the last seven fall into this bucket, including reigning winner Joe Burrow - but others, like Ryan Tannehill (2019), are bouncing back from poor performance. We've even seen players return from a prison sentence to win it (see: Michael Vick, 2010).
There's also the question of which is more important: Overall performance or the depth of the comeback? Alex Smith won this award in 2020 despite throwing more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (6), but his gruesome leg injury was quite the feat to overcome. Last year, Dak Prescott battled back from a similarly devastating injury, but Burrow's superior stat line gave him the edge coming off an ACL tear.
That's what makes betting on this award so fun. You can make a realistic case for any player on the board, but there are a few that stand out in the early market at Barstool Sportsbook:
2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | +300 |
| Jameis Winston | +500 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +800 |
| Michael Thomas | +800 |
| Marcus Mariota | +1200 |
| Baker Mayfield | +1200 |
| Daniel Jones | +1400 |
| Chase Young | +1500 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +1600 |
| Cam Akers | +2000 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | +2000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | +2000 |
| Allen Robinson | +2200 |
| Drew Lock | +2500 |
| Khalil Mack | +2500 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2500 |
| Robert Woods | +3000 |
| D.J. Chark | +3300 |
| Travis Etienne | +3300 |
| Chris Godwin | +3300 |
| Tre'Davious White | +3400 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | +4000 |
| Will Fuller | +4000 |
| Danielle Hunter | +4000 |
| Marcus Peters | +4000 |
| J.J. Watt | +4000 |
| Chris Carson | +5000 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +5000 |
| Raheem Mostert | +5000 |
| James White | +5000 |
| Carl Lawson | +6000 |
| Jaycee Horn | +6600 |
| Marlon Humphrey | +6600 |
| Darrell Henderson | +8100 |
| Gus Edwards | +10000 |
| Brandon Graham | +10000 |
| Blake Martinez | +10000 |
| Jeffrey Okudah | +10000 |
| Dan Arnold | +15000 |
| Ronnie Stanley | +15000 |
| Maxx Williams | +15000 |
It's been 18 years since a running back won this award and five years since it went to a non-quarterback, so Henry has his work cut out for him as the preseason favorite. Still, if a skill position player ever deserves to be favored in this field, it's this year.
The Titans star was en route to another monster season before a broken bone in his foot in Week 8 sidelined him for the second half of the campaign. He still finished with 937 yards and 10 touchdowns (!) in just eight games after leading the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns each of the previous two seasons.
Henry's got a legitimate shot to do that again if he can stay healthy for 16 or 17 games, and he's got an outside shot at another 2,000-yard year. If he pulled that off right after missing half a season, he'd be in a strong position to win this award.
Jameis Winston, QB, Saints (+500)Winston is the perfect archetype to win this award. Quarterbacks have won it 15 of the last 25 years, including each of the last four, while injury has been the "comeback" nature for seven of the past eight winners. That lines up well for Winston, who should reclaim his starting spot after tearing his ACL a year ago.
The Saints have invested in the offense around him, adding former Pro Bowl receiver Jarvis Landry while drafting receiver Chris Olave and tackle Trevor Penning in the first round. All-Pro wideout Michael Thomas - another candidate in this field - should be healthy, too, giving Winston plenty of ammunition in a potential make-or-break year for the veteran QB.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Panthers (+1200)If you're looking for someone in the "performance" category of the Comeback Player of the Year market, look no further than Mayfield, who has a chance to revive his career after last week's trade from the Browns to the Panthers.
Mayfield isn't guaranteed a starting role in Carolina, but he's got a great shot to win the job after a lackluster year from fellow top-five pick Sam Darnold. If Mayfield can secure the starting spot and play like he did just two years ago - when he threw for 3,563 yards and 26 touchdowns to just eight interceptions - he'll be in the running for this award by season's end.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns (+2500)Look, it doesn't feel good to make this bet, and there's a decent chance Watson may not even play this season for the Browns. There's an even better chance that, if he does, voters would hesitate to put him on their ballot. He's a 25-1 long shot for a reason.
Don't forget, though - Vick won this award after nearly two years in prison. If Watson plays this year, he's still one of the five most talented quarterbacks in the league and has a lot to prove in 2022. If he's clearly the most productive player in this race, he's got a shot to win it.
Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers (+3300)It's tough for a wide receiver to win this award - we've seen it just twice in 14 years - but Godwin is simply too talented to be priced this far down the board.
The Buccaneers star had 98 catches for 1,103 yards a year ago before tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 15. Incredibly, the team is hopeful that he could be back by Week 1, which would put him in position for another 1,000-yard season as one of Tom Brady's top wideouts. A campaign like he had in 2019 - when he finished with 1,333 yards and a Pro Bowl nod - would be a boon for his candidacy.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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