What direction should Flames take with Tkachuk set to be traded?

Johnny Gaudreau just walked as an unrestricted free agent. Now, Matthew Tkachuk has reportedly informed the Flames he won't sign a long-term deal. Where does Calgary go from here?

Tkachuk is a restricted free agent, but he can become an unrestricted free agent in 2023. He may get painted as a villain in the city of Calgary, but he's actually doing the Flames a favor by letting them know his plans ahead of time. General manager Brad Treliving now has ample time to strike a deal.

But which direction will Treliving try and guide the Flames? Below, we assess his two options.

Retool on the fly

The Flames are coming off a 111-point season, the second-best mark in franchise history. Losing Gaudreau for nothing is obviously detrimental, but if they can hit a home run on a Tkachuk return package, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that they could remain competitive again in 2022-23 and beyond. Calgary hasn't lost anyone else of significance, and the team's foundation is its goaltending and defense.

This would mean demanding a return package that includes a young, controllable player who can still help the team in the present. Getting such a player isn't impossible, but it's easier said than done.

Tkachuk was also kind enough to reportedly list the teams he'd sign an extension with. Those clubs include:

• Dallas Stars
• Florida Panthers
• Nashville Predators
• St. Louis Blues
• Vegas Golden Knights

The Blues have the best centerpieces to offer among those teams. They may not be willing to deal Robert Thomas after just signing him to an eight-year, $65-million extension, but would Jordan Kyrou be in play? If so, Treliving should jump all over that. Kyrou is just 24, coming off a 75-point season, and he can't become a UFA until 2025.

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

The Stars are also intriguing. Miro Heiskanen is obviously untouchable, but what about Roope Hintz (2024 UFA) and Jason Robertson (2027 UFA)? Dallas GM Jim Nill would surely rather not move either player, but if that were the cost, would he play ball? We would guess no, since Hintz is a center and Robertson's upside is enormous.

Florida's only tantalizing piece for Calgary is 20-year-old center Anton Lundell. But the two years remaining on his entry-level deal may be too difficult for the cap-strapped Panthers to pass up.

Never say never, but the Predators and Golden Knights probably don't have what it takes. Vegas would have to be willing to move Jack Eichel or Shea Theodore, but that isn't likely.

Hypothetically, if the Flames traded Tkachuk to St. Louis for a package involving Kyrou, they could still be a strong team in 2022-23, especially in the weak Pacific Division. And aside from RFA Andrew Mangiapane, who can become a UFA in 2023, nobody else of significance on Calgary's roster could leave after next season, mitigating the risk of trying to win. If the Flames don't succeed in 2022-23, they could always re-evaluate their direction next offseason.

Everybody thought the New York Islanders should've blown it up after John Tavares left as a free agent in 2018. But they stayed the course and made the conference finals in back-to-back years. Bright days aren't necessarily ahead for the Isles now, but they showed there's a recipe for remaining a contender after losing a star player.

And like Barry Trotz did on Long Island, Darryl Sutter is the type of coach that doesn't necessarily need a superstar player to succeed.

Full rebuild

The other option, of course, is a complete teardown, which likely wouldn't please the 63-year-old Sutter. Even though it's possible to remain competitive without Gaudreau and Tkachuk, Calgary's chances of winning the Stanley Cup now - even with a young, controllable star coming back for Tkachuk - are slim.

After all, the Flames just got trounced by the rival Edmonton Oilers in Round 2 before the Oilers got steamrolled by the eventual Cup champs Colorado Avalanche in Round 3. That alone would indicate the Flames were never as close to winning the Cup as many thought. So, why try running it back with a team that's, at the very least, slightly worse? And while its farm system isn't completely bare, there are no can't-miss prospects coming through the pipeline to save the day.

A full rebuild would mean some short-term pain for potential long-term gain.

With a complete teardown, the Flames could take the best return for Tkachuk - one that includes numerous draft picks and promising prospects - even if it lacks a young, controllable star.

Outside of Tkachuk, the Flames have plenty of other intriguing trade chips. Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund, Tyler Toffoli, Noah Hanifin, and Chris Tanev (all 2024 UFAs) would have plenty of value around the league.

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Lindholm's trade value, in particular, may be at an all-time high after he posted a career year while being flanked by Gaudreau and Tkachuk. The 27-year-old Selke finalist also carries a bargain cap hit of $4.85 million.

Hanifin, meanwhile, is just 25. He could be viewed as a franchise cornerstone, but there's no guarantee the Boston product would want to stick around in Calgary for the long haul.

Mangiapane, 26, and Oliver Kylington, 25, (also an RFA) could be dangled as trade bait, too, but it all depends on what kind of contracts they sign.

Jacob Markstrom just completed his second season of a six-year, $36-million deal, but he, too, would be highly coveted around the league. The 32-year-old netminder has a full no-movement clause, so it'd ultimately be up to him.

A lot of contending teams around the NHL are close to being capped out, so it may be difficult to move a lot of these players at this stage of the offseason. However, with so many of them carrying team-friendly cap hits, it could be done, especially if the Flames are willing to take back bad contracts in exchange for more assets.

This could also be an ideal season to tank. The 2023 draft is headlined by two potential franchise players in Connor Bedard and Matvei Michkov. Landing one of them would do wonders to speed up a rebuild.

Conclusion

It's more likely Calgary will retool, but a full rebuild may be inevitable at some point. So, why not start it now?

Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.