Hamilton’s seventh COVID wave has started and is expected to ‘greatly increase’

Hamilton is in the midst of a COVID wave driven by the highly-contagious Omicron BA. 5 subvariant that is expected to only get worse as the year goes on.

The forecast shows that Hamilton's seventh COVID-19 wave has started and is predicted to greatly increase into the fall," stated a Scarsin Forecasting update for Hamilton covering July 13 to the end of 2022. The timing and size of the seventh wave will become clearer in the coming weeks."

Public health reported Wednesday that COVID transmission is high and increasing in Hamilton.

We're firmly in the seventh wave and it's affecting all regions of the province," Dr. Fahad Razak, scientific director of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, told The Spectator.

He said it's not typical for respiratory viruses to have surges in the summer, although he did note that the fourth COVID wave hit in August last year.

He also pointed out that the sixth and seventh waves have come close together with one ending in May and the other starting in July.

It's discouraging," he said." It's come on very quickly."

Hamilton's average daily new cases went up to 93 on July 17 from 62 on July 3 and 25 on June 6. Case counts are a significant underestimate as the general public doesn't have access to PCR testing.

Active outbreaks in high-risk settings have increased to 31 on Wednesday compared to 18 on July 5 and eight on June 21. Of the ongoing outbreaks, 11 were in seniors' homes, 10 in group homes and other types of communal living, six in hospitals and four in shelters.

The city reported four more COVID deaths of seniors age 80 and older from July 6 to July 19, bringing pandemic fatalities to 581.

A big change has been that COVID hospitalizations have started to rise after being stable at around one per day up until July 10. New hospitalizations were closer to two a day as of July 17.

Hamilton's hospitals were caring for 93 COVID patients Wednesday compared to 36 on July 6. During that same period, the number of staff self-isolating has gone up to 352 from 292.

New hospital admissions of Hamiltonians are predicted to continue to moderately increase during the summer peaking in late fall or early winter as Hamiltonians move indoors and more infectious sub-variants such as BA. 5 continue to circulate," stated the modelling.

In total, Scarsin Forecasting predicts around 500 Hamiltonians will be admitted to hospital with COVID between July 13 and Dec. 31. Nearly one-third of those hospitalizations were expected to be under the age of 60. Another 41 per cent were predicted to be 60 to 79 years old. Seniors age 80 and older accounted for the fewest hospitalizations in the forecast at 29 per cent.

The forecast came with the caveat that it doesn't account for potential changes to the COVID vaccine rollout, such as children under five becoming eligible, enhanced shots that target Omicron or higher rates of uptake. It also doesn't factor in increased use of personal protective measures such as masks.

Masks are recommended by Razak - particularly in certain indoor settings - as one of the best protections during the seventh wave, along with better ventilation.

In addition, improved uptake of the third COVID shot would make a big difference. Fewer than 50 per cent of Hamiltonians age 18 to 39 have had three doses and fewer than 60 per cent of those 40 to 54. Just 15 per cent of Hamilton youth age 12 to 17 have been boosted.

The biggest opportunity that hasn't been pursued is the third dose," said Razak. There's very clear evidence it's highly effective."

The fourth dose is also important for adults age 60 and older, as well for younger people with underlying health conditions. Razak says it's very clear those at high risk should get a fourth shot now.

The expansion of fourth-dose eligibility is particularly aimed at adults who have underlying health issues and are at higher risk of severe infection," Hamilton medical officer of health Dr. Elizabeth Richardson said in a statement Wednesday. Healthy adults who have already had three doses of COVID-19 vaccines may want to wait until the fall, when it is anticipated that an Omicron-specific vaccine will be available in Ontario."

When it comes to young and healthy adults, Razak says the timing of the fourth dose isn't black and white"

He recommends those at lower-risk who may want to consider getting the fourth shot now include:

• Adults who had their third shot six months ago or longer;

• Front-line workers worried about a higher chance of potential exposure;

• Close contacts of those at higher-risk of severe infection.

However, Razak stressed the added protection from symptomatic infection of a fourth shot only lasts around two months for those at low risk.

Benefits in younger population without health issues (is) limited," Hamilton infectious disease physician Dr. Zain Chagla tweeted July 16. Talking about the limits of fourth doses isn't anti-vax it's being honest as a provider."

Chagla also emphasized that the third dose is the one that matters most for the young and healthy.

We have real data suggesting third doses working very well in low-risk populations," he tweeted July 13.

While there is hope that vaccines to fight Omicron will be available in the fall, Razak cautions against counting on them as a silver bullet. The evidence at this point suggests they don't make a dramatic difference.

Plus the virus is rapidly evolving," so Razak says it's hard to know what the fall will bring.

For now, Richardson strongly recommends people continue to recognize that transmission is increasing, and following measures such as staying home when you are sick, wearing a mask when indoors ... and staying up to date on your immunizations are essential to protect your health, that of your loved ones and the capacity of our health-care system to provide care for all."

Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com