Expect ‘more heat waves, more warm days and tropical nights’: McMaster climate expert
Like most people, Altaf Arain is taking note of the heat wave smouldering these days in southern Ontario.
Unlike most people, he has spent most of his life researching our evolving climate and developing models to predict where it's headed.
The McMaster University professor of geography and earth sciences completed graduate studies at universities in Arizona and B.C. before joining the faculty in Hamilton 22 years ago, but the roots of his interest in climate change go further back, and farther away.
He grew up in southeast Pakistan where his father owned a farm, and he developed an appreciation for how weather patterns impacted his family and community.
Crop productivity depended on how much rain you got. You worried about no rain, which meant less water for irrigation in the canal, or you may get a lot of water, but not when you really need it," he said. That uncertainty never changed."
As part of his PhD studies at the University of Arizona, Arain received a fellowship from the NASA space agency for his work using satellite data to study changes in the earth's surface to improve climate prediction models.
Arain is the director and founder of McMaster's Centre for Climate Change that launched in 2010. The centre's work includes gathering data at high-tech weather stations based on campus, and at Turkey Point on Lake Erie.
He spoke to The Spectator about Hamilton's warming climate, and what part local residents can play in addressing the issue.
Questions and answers have been edited for length and clarity.
Jon Wells: Should we distinguish between extreme weather that happens on any given day, like the current heat wave, and long-term climate change over centuries?
Altaf Arain: We are in summer, and radiation is at the peak in our region and it should be warmer. But if you have more carbon dioxide in the air, that warming is translated into much higher temperatures. The more greenhouse gases in the air will enhance that impact ... these gases allow the short wave radiation in from the sun, but do not allow the long wave radiation to escape, so over time you have warmer temperatures. Summers will be warmer, because every year you increase the greenhouse gases, and so it's like a blanket, and the blanket is becoming thicker every year.
Q: What would you say are the immediate concerns for Hamilton in terms of climate change, and what can we do locally to help mitigate the effects?
A: If you look at historic trends in our region, our temperature has become warmer, and the models predict the trend will continue. By 2050 we will have more heat waves, more warm days and tropical nights, and more intense rainfall, with drier periods in between ... One issue that is a major one is resource consumption; everything is driven by it. I need a new cellphone, I need five pairs of shoes in one year'; we have more prosperity, but every item that is made, and consumed, uses resources. If you have a handle on consumption, the demand for energy will not grow at such a rapid rate. Yes: you plant trees, buy local food, use less energy, turn lights off, these things will benefit us, but as a society if you have a handle on consumption, that will be a big impact.
Q: Do you think the pandemic pushed climate change aside in the public imagination as an immediate crisis?
A: A huge amount of resources were diverted (to COVID), and it was the right thing to do. But the pandemic also provides an opportunity to think: do we want to go back to business as usual, or tweak our approach to do things differently that help the environment? One example is: COVID created new work habits, working from home, and there are benefits to it, that you don't need a big building and the energy required for it, and costs can be lowered, which impacts your transportation as well ... so there are opportunities to transform our systems, toward a new way that is energy smart.
Q: You wrote in The Spec in 2015 that it was heartening to see leaders from around the world at the Paris climate-change talks pledging to take action on global warming. How do you feel about that international consensus today?
A: If you look at the Paris accords, Canada earned great respect. Morally, we demonstrated we are a global citizen at the forefront of taking action. We want to keep earning that respect. Also, Canada is the only country that has three continental oceans at its border, we have a responsibility for the stewardship of a great land mass and water resources ... We need to help develop technologies to use greener energy, including nuclear, wind, and solar. No one country can solve it, but we are all on the same planet, and our communities are all connected.
Q: It's been reported that there are younger people, especially, who feel anxiety about climate change. How should the average person internalize the issue?
A: At (McMaster's) climate centre, our students engage with younger students. We have a high school outreach program, and do seminars for the public. We have never projected the issue in extreme ways so that the young people will panic. Our message is, the environment is important, and where you can make a difference, you should make it ... But it's not a problem solved by individuals; they are important and impact the political system, but the responsibility also comes at different levels of organization, when planning for the long term. Certain transitions cannot be done in two or three years, sometimes they are longer-term investments and then you reap more benefits over time.
Jon Wells is a feature writer at The Spectator. jwells@thespec.com