Which NFL teams have best chance to go 'worst to first' in 2022?
Ahead of every NFL season, it seems improbable that any of the last-place teams from the year before can actually win their division. And every year, like clockwork, it happens anyway.
Last year, the Bengals came out of nowhere to win the AFC North on the heels of a 4-11-1 campaign the year before. They were the 10th team in the last 10 years to go "worst to first" in 12 months. Only twice in the last two decades has there been a season in which at least one team didn't pull off the feat.
So, naturally, we've been scouring the oddsboards for all eight divisions to see which teams are the likeliest candidates to do it this year. Here are the eight teams that finished fourth in their divisions a year ago - ranked by their division odds courtesy of Barstool Sportsbook - followed by our thoughts on every team's chances of flipping the script in 2022:
| TEAM | DIVISION | ODDS | 2021 RECORD | 2022 WIN TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | +165 | 8-9 | 9.5 |
| Denver Broncos | AFC West | +270 | 7-10 | 10 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | +700 | 3-14 | 6.5 |
| New York Giants | NFC East | +750 | 4-13 | 7.5 |
| Detroit Lions | NFC North | +900 | 3-13-1 | 6.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | NFC South | +1000 | 5-12 | 6 |
| New York Jets | AFC East | +1800 | 4-13 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | +2000 | 7-10 | 5.5 |
The Ravens are the only team actually favored to win their division after finishing in last place a year ago, which makes them an easy call atop this list. And they've made all the moves to set themselves up for another AFC North crown.
Baltimore revamped its beleaguered secondary by signing safety Marcus Williams and corner Kyle Fuller and adding first-round pick Kyle Hamilton to one of the most talented backlines in the NFL. A healthy J.K. Dobbins should reignite this lethal run game - especially with former MVP Lamar Jackson seemingly motivated by his pending free agency.
Denver Broncos (+270 to win AFC West)The Broncos might actually be the best team on this list, as evidenced by their double-digit win total - the highest among any last-place finishers from 2021. Yet they also have arguably the greatest hurdle to clear in the most competitive division in football.
Still, you have to like their chances with All-Pro quarterback Russell Wilson leading this young and talented offense that has long been hindered by shaky play under center. Denver's defense has all the pieces to finally put it together as well. Any regression from the Chiefs could leave the door wide open for this group, which is tantalizing on paper.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+700 to win AFC South)On paper, the AFC South looks like the easiest division to steal as a long shot. It's the only division without a team priced at 20-1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl, and there isn't an elite quarterback on any of the four rosters (apologies to Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill).
That doesn't mean the Jaguars are quite ready to seize the moment, though. We still haven't seen Trevor Lawrence find even pedestrian levels of success in the pros, even if his talent level suggests he eventually will. Plus, the exorbitant spending spree this summer won't necessarily translate to immediate results under new coach Doug Pederson. There's upside here, but it's not the best bet on the board.
New York Giants (+750 to win NFC East)All five teams priced in the 7-1 to 18-1 range to win their division from this list ranked in the bottom seven in DVOA a year ago, so it's not like any of these rosters are ready-made for a quick turnaround. Yet the Giants appear to have the clearest path to success in 2022.
New York's defense showed moments of promise a year ago, but its offense ranked dead last in most key metrics in a season mired by injuries. If Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can stay on the field - which should be easier behind a new-look offensive line - that alone would do wonders for this group. I've got as much confidence in Jones as the next guy, but if he can just stop giving it away, this offense has significant room for growth in the always-tumultuous NFC East.
Detroit Lions (+900 to win NFC North)This Lions roster teased upside a year ago before promptly finishing 3-13-1 in another throwaway campaign. Will it be any different in Year 2 under Dan Campbell, whose group showed some signs of life late in the season?
This is clearly a make-or-break year for former top pick Jared Goff, and he's surrounded with enough talent in Detroit to make good on the tools that helped him reach the Super Bowl early in his career. There are still some major questions on defense for this group, though, and it'd take a massive letdown from the Packers for a long-shot bet to pay off here.
Carolina Panthers (+1000 to win NFC South)Remember when this team opened the season with three straight wins and looked like a potential dark horse in the NFC? Injuries to key offensive players and a seven-game losing streak down the stretch doomed any potential for a sneaky playoff berth or an unlikely bid at the division crown.
Still, the Panthers' defense is legit and led by young stars, which could mean even more gains in 2022. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are both fighting for their careers at this point, which could bring out the best in either former top-three pick. The Buccaneers loom large in this division but are the only real threat to consider; one injury in Tampa Bay and steady play from Carolina's QB could spell real long-shot value here.
New York Jets (+1800 to win AFC East)I actually like what the Jets are building around young quarterback Zach Wilson ahead of coach Robert Saleh's second year at the helm. They've made a clear commitment to adding weapons around the former BYU star, and a revamped defensive line should help turn around that side of the ball.
That said, this is about winning the division, and New York appears far from that mighty task as long as Josh Allen is running the show upstate. The Bills (-200) are the shortest division favorite in the AFC and should be the most complete team in football in 2022. Even a breakout season for Wilson likely won't be enough to close the gap there.
Seattle Seahawks (+2000 to win NFC West)Let's take stock of the NFC West for a moment. Three of the four teams in the division won at least 10 games last season, two of them met in the NFC Championship Game, and the other just signed its star quarterback to one of the biggest deals in NFL history.
And then there's the Seahawks, who traded away Wilson to accelerate a rebuild that feels a couple of years overdue. There's simply no way this team is winning such a stacked division unless Drew Lock has an MVP-level season - and even the biggest Lock truthers have forsaken that dream long ago.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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