Andrea Horwath early front-runner in Hamilton mayoral race: poll

A poll puts Hamilton mayoral hopeful Andrea Horwath well ahead of the pack.

The Mainstreet Research telephone survey with 617 respondents found 37 per cent were leaning" toward voting for Horwath in the Oct. 24 election.

At 14 per cent, Keanin Loomis was runner-up, with 13 per cent partial to Bob Bratina and negligible support for Ejaz Butt.

A contingent of 35 per cent said they hadn't yet made up their minds at the time of the automated telephone interviews on July 22 and 23.

That was before Horwath's announcement Tuesday that she was indeed running for mayor after weeks of speculation.

I think she's in a pretty safe space at this point," Robert Martin, the Mainstreet data analyst who handled the poll, said Friday.

In fact, this feels like the beginning of a blowout to be honest," Martin added.

Anything could happen ... but for this to become more competitive, I think you'd need like a major Horwath scandal or something."

McMaster political scientist Peter Graefe is not convinced Horwath has the race sewn up.

A lot can happen in the space of a couple of months."

The survey results suggest an encouraging start" for the Horwath camp, but her team still has to reach that undecided contingent as the campaign wears on, Graefe said.

Moreover, those who are saying your name now are probably not doing so with a whole lot of thought or conviction," he added.

And so a campaign that doesn't impress or the candidate who isn't really able to articulate the reason why the people should be supporting her is one that could well end up with much less than 30 per cent on election day."

The four candidates aim to take over for Mayor Fred Eisenberger, who has opted to retire from local politics at the end of this term.

Loomis, who recently stepped down as CEO of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce for his municipal run, was the first mayoral hopeful to enter the race on May 2.

Butt, a former taxi union official who also took a crack at the position in 2014, followed him in making it official.

If elected, Bratina, most recently a Liberal MP for Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, would make a comeback as mayor, having worn the chain of office from 2010 to 2014.

Horwath also has a municipal track record from her seven-year stint as Ward 2 councillor starting in 1997.

After the June 2 provincial election, which led to a strong Progressive Conservative majority and reinstalled Doug Ford as premier, she stepped down as NDP leader.

An MPP since 2004, Horwath said she will resign from her Hamilton Centre post but hasn't said when exactly that will happen.

The Ontario legislature resumes Aug. 8.

The telephone survey results must be a bit disappointing" for the Loomis campaign, who may have hoped for a cleaner split" between Bratina and Horwath," Graefe speculated.

It's not everything, but much of the battle for votes will hinge on name recognition, which Loomis must transcend, he suggested.

But if that name recognition vote is split between the two of them, it's a bit easier for him to come up the middle."

After Oct. 24, at least six new faces are guaranteed around the council horseshoe come inauguration with Eisenberger and five ward incumbents saying they're not running.

The Mainstreet Research survey - for iPolitics and QP Briefing - is one among a suite of municipal election polls the firm is conducting.

The Hamilton survey of local adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 per cent. Totals don't necessarily add up to 100 per cent due to rounding.

It also asked respondents about a series of local issues, including what they thought about the current municipal government.

To that, 31 per cent said they were somewhat satisfied, six per cent very satisfied, 35 per cent somewhat dissatisfied and 29 per cent very dissatisfied.

Asked for their opinion of the current mayor, 47 per cent somewhat approved, 17 per cent strongly approved, 18 per cent somewhat disapproved and 17 per cent strongly disapproved.

On the most important issue for the city, 38 per cent said affordable housing, 21 per cent roads/infrastructure, 21 per cent lowering taxes, 12 per cent improving transit and seven per cent increasing services.

On housing, a whopping 80 per cent responded that it was unaffordable, while five per cent said it was affordable and 15 per cent about the right price."

Asked if more homes or apartment buildings should be built in their neighbourhood or if it already has as many as it can reasonably support," 74 per cent said there were enough while 26 per cent opined more were needed.

On infrastructure, 39 per cent said the city should focus on LRT, 31 per cent on roads/highways and 30 per cent on bus stops/bus routes.

Teviah Moro is a reporter at The Spectator. tmoro@thespec.com