Signs of small increase in COVID transmission in Hamilton
COVID transmission remains high in Hamilton and has recently shown signs of an increase.
Average daily new cases have gone up for five days in a row to 96 on Aug. 7 from 72 on Aug. 2. Cases are an underestimate as the public doesn't have access to PCR testing.
The number of tests coming back positive has also been on the rise to 19.1 per cent on Aug. 4 from 15 per cent on July 28.
We have again seen some small increases," city epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson told the board of health Wednesday. The current transmission is high."
With other key metrics factored in, COVID spread was still listed as holding steady in the latest status update posted by public health on Wednesday.
We are in a stable state overall," said Sanderson. Keep in mind that ... these indicators are still high."
The city reported the deaths of seven more Hamilton seniors from COVID, bringing pandemic fatalities to 597. The deaths from Aug. 3 to Aug. 9 included six seniors age 80 and older and one Hamiltonian in their 70s.
Deaths have also been reported in two of the city's 27 ongoing outbreaks in high-risk settings as of Aug. 9. The largest active outbreak was at Extendicare Hamilton, where 37 have been infected and one has died at the west Mountain long-term care home since July 18.
The other outbreak death was at Shalom Village, where 18 have tested positive at the Westdale long-term care home since July 20.
Overall, 16 of the outbreaks were in seniors' homes, four in vulnerable communal living settings, four in hospitals, two in shelters and one at correctional facility Arrell Youth Centre.
Hamilton is in the midst of a seventh COVID wave with city hospitals caring for 120 COVID patients Wednesday - up from 102 one week ago and 85 about two weeks ago.
During that same time, the number of staff self-isolating has decreased slightly to 292 on Wednesday.
While we have not seen as big an increase in hospitalizations as we have seen in previous waves, it's important to keep in mind that this indicator does lag behind other indicators," said Sanderson.
Scarsin Forecasting has predicted 323 new hospital admissions of Hamiltonians due to COVID-19 from now until the end of the year. About 29 per cent of those hospitalizations are expected to be among those age 59 or younger.
Hamilton Scarsin forecast predicts the seventh wave will greatly increase again in the fall and new hospital admissions are predicted to increase ... as Hamiltonians move indoors and more infectious subvariants such as BA.5 continue to circulate," said Sanderson. There continues to be some uncertainty about the timing and size of the seventh wave and this should become clearer in the coming weeks."
The best protection against COVID is to stay up to date on vaccinations, said Jordan Walker, acting director of epidemiology, wellness and communicable disease control.
Since our last update on vaccine coverage in June, we haven't really seen much movement in terms of first and second doses," he said.
Overall, about 85 per cent of Hamiltonians age five and over have had two shots. However, uptake is low among kids age five to 11 with just 37 per cent having two doses.
Nearly 56 per cent of Hamiltonians age 12 and older have had three shots. Again, the youngest age group has low coverage with just 16 per cent of youth age 12 to 17 boosted.
Nearly 15 per cent of Hamiltonians age 18 and older have had four shots. However, many may be waiting until the fall when vaccines that specifically target Omicron are expected to be available.
Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com