NFL Preseason Week 3 best bets

It's the preseason for everyone. The idea is to get some early reps without extending yourself or getting hurt. That applies to players on the field and bettors in the sportsbook. With three weeks of tuneups on the schedule, we'll proceed with extreme caution while stretching ourselves out. Remember: These games don't count, but the bets definitely do.

As part of our preseason betting, we're reminded of the special experience that is betting on football. Forget about predictive metrics and reading the market's overadjustments - we also get to practice the feeling of swallowing bad beats and the shock of the unforeseeable play.

Week 2's lesson was to avoid getting too high after an early sweep. The Commanders got within the number in the second half at Kansas City, but the Chiefs punched one in late to cover. Then the Cowboys got not one, but two special teams touchdowns to carry their game over the total despite predictably weak offensive efficiency for both them and the Chargers.

Overall, a 5-3 week moves our preseason record to 11-6 for +5.3 units, which we'll put back into play for the final dress rehearsals before the season.

Best spread bet

Lions (+4.5) over Steelers

It's the NFL, so no team is short of attention, but with "Hard Knocks" cameras and production crews around 24-7, Dan Campbell's squad isn't about to take it easy in any games. Of course, that doesn't guarantee victory, but it ensures competitiveness right to the very end, which is when their first two games were decided.

The Steelers' trio of quarterbacks has played well so far this preseason, and while the Lions' backup duo of David Blough and Tim Boyle isn't scaring anyone, Detroit will still seek success in the trenches. The Lions ran for 5.3 yards per carry against the Colts, whereas the Steelers had just 14 rushes for 24 yards against the Jaguars.

Campbell will keep grinding on his guys to establish a feeling of success going into a rare season in which there's actually hope in Detroit. Meanwhile, the Steelers will continue to use this time for experimentation, so hoping they cover a decent-sized spread is a bit too much to ask for.

Underdog moneyline bet

Bills (+220) over Panthers

Yes, Josh Allen has probably seen his last preseason game snap, but he wasn't the only one out there for Saturday's decimation of the Broncos. Case Keenum and Matt Barkley completed 23 of 26 passes for 257 yards, and five different running backs combined for over 200 yards and four touchdowns. Even if the Bills' two favorite tailbacks sit out, there are still three guys that can do work.

The Panthers announced what we already knew Monday: Baker Mayfield will start Week 1. He'll likely sit out this game, and with Matt Corral out for the season, that leaves a lot for PJ Walker, especially if Sam Darnold doesn't play again.

At +220 on the moneyline, I just don't understand how bad - or disinterested - the Bills would possibly need to be to warrant that kind of a price, so we'll take our chances with the best team in the league being the biggest underdog on the board.

Best total bet

Seahawks / Cowboys under 40 points

Maybe I'm a fool for thinking that KaVontae Turpin won't take multiple kicks to the house this week, but the Cowboys were under five yards per play again last week. I'm definitely not seeing things when I found that the Seahawks' passing game barely exceeded a 50% completion percentage against the Bears at home.

With Dak Prescott on the sideline, the Cowboys have an excuse for not being good on offense. The Seahawks don't. In any case, neither team should crack 20 points without something weird happening.

Best teaser legs

Chargers +7.5 / Eagles +8.5 (-120)

We've hit seven of eight of our standard Stanford-Wong teaser legs - teasing up short spreads over a touchdown in games with low totals - with the Cowboys' failure to muster 10 points in a 17-7 loss at Denver in their first preseason game the only blemish.

The Chargers and Saints have a total of 36.5, and the Eagles and Dolphins sit at 38.5 expected points. With an implication of a 20-17 style of game, each point is worth that much more, so teasing the underdog up over a touchdown is the right strategy in two games that could either way.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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