NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year betting: Patience will pay off
The Defensive Rookie of the Year market has shifted toward pass-rushers who put up impact counting stats such as sacks - much like its "uncle" market, the Defensive Player of the Year. Unlike its "cousin" market - the Offensive Rookie of the Year - the DROY oddsboard hasn't shifted much from where it stood shortly after the NFL draft in April.
Few are expecting a rookie defensive player to stand out in minimal preseason action or a team to unleash a special player with a special usage plan the way the Dallas Cowboys did with Micah Parsons last year. We won't know if we'll see such a player until the season begins, so we'll have to act accordingly if we do.
More than in any other market, the best advice here is to be patient. Reviewing how teams use their new players can still provide value a few weeks into the season. A defensive back can play significant snaps in numerous games but may not find the ball in their hands until later in the season. A front-seven defensive player might accumulate pressures or tackles but fail to garner media and betting attention because they don't record sacks early.
Having followed the oddsboard over the offseason, we know it doesn't react in the same way as the offensive version, which is a good thing for bettors in a market that reopens after each week of play.
Defensive Rookie of the Year odds| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Aidan Hutchinson | +550 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | +550 |
| Kyle Hamilton | +800 |
| Travon Walker | +800 |
| Quay Walker | +800 |
| Ahmad Gardner | +1200 |
| Derek Stingley | +1200 |
| Jermaine Johnson | +1200 |
| Jordan Davis | +1300 |
| Devin Lloyd | +1500 |
| George Karlaftis | +2000 |
| Kaiir Elam | +2000 |
| Nakobe Dean | +2000 |
| Trent McDuffie | +2500 |
| Devonte Wyatt | +3000 |
| Daxton Hill | +4000 |
| Drake Jackson | +4000 |
| Roger McCreary | +4000 |
| Sam Williams | +4000 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | +5000 |
| Boye Mafe | +5000 |
| Logan Hall | +5000 |
Odds available on theScore Bet, players not listed above available at 60-1 or longer
Aidan Hutchinson is still the favorite, as nothing has changed about his role in the Detroit Lions' defense. Sacks, pressures, and general havoc are expected from the Michigan product, an expectation the market shares. Should he come out hot this season and dominate offensive linemen, we'll entertain the idea of betting Hutchinson, even at a shorter price. Until then, we'll look down the board for long shots to make a minimal investment on.
Best betsDevin Lloyd (+1500)
Lloyd is still primed for a tackle-consuming role with the Jaguars' defense, but his odds have lengthened after missing Jacksonville's first two games with a lingering hamstring injury. Lloyd is back practicing at full strength and should be up to speed for Week 1. With first overall pick Travon Walker setting a defensive edge and working with Josh Allen to cause backfield havoc, Lloyd won't be rushing the passer as a primary role. His tackle count will be noticed later in the season. If the two favorites struggle to rack up the sacks, Lloyd's consistent production may be rewarded.
George Karlaftis (+2000)
Karlaftis is one of the few rookies to make a headline or two in preseason game action. He got a sack in each of the first two games and received glowing reviews for his technique in rushing the passer. The Purdue product slipped down the draft, and that's been mirrored on the oddsboard. However, whether it's a high volume of snaps or prime situational plays on third downs, Karlaftis should have more than an average number of opportunities for the coveted sack with the Kansas City Chiefs frequently playing from ahead. If he can approach double-digit sacks in that role for Kansas City, he could cash DROY tickets at a big price.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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