NFL season-long props: Best bets to lead the league in passing

There are few surprises in the passing yardage market, as it's largely understood who can throw roughly 5,000 yards in a season. Traditionally, we try to pinpoint a quarterback who isn't expected to have comfortable fourth quarters frequently and is ideally on the upward trajectory for his career - like Deshaun Watson in 2020. But then Tom Brady led the league in passing yardage last year. Was that an outlier? Oddsmakers seem unsure.

Odds to lead NFL in passing yards

PLAYER	ODDS
Justin Herbert	+650
Tom Brady	+750
Patrick Mahomes	+900
Matthew Stafford	+1000
Derek Carr	+1200
Joe Burrow	+1200
Josh Allen	+1200
Dak Prescott	+1400
Aaron Rodgers	+1600
Kirk Cousins	+1800
Russell Wilson	+2000
Matt Ryan	+2500
Deshaun Watson	+3000
Jameis Winston	+3000
Kyler Murray	+3000
Mac Jones	+3000
Trevor Lawrence	+3000
Tua Tagovailoa	+3000

Odds available on theScore Bet, players not listed above available at 40-1 or longer

Justin Herbert, last year's runner-up, edges Brady as the favorite. The thinking is the Chargers will need offensive urgency for a full 60 minutes in most games, and the progression of Herbert's career arc will bump him over 300 yards per contest. That all makes sense, but too much can go wrong to bet at +650. Instead, we'll take a shot with a trio of quarterbacks who fit logically as candidates for a career year.

Best bets

Joe Burrow (+1200)

The first pick in the same draft as Herbert, Burrow was right behind Los Angeles' quarterback in passing yards per game in 2021. However, Burrow didn't participate in a 17th contest last season, with the Bengals surprisingly wrapping up the AFC North. His electric season came off the heels of reconstructive knee surgery, and the Bengals still employed a sketchy offensive line in his sophomore campaign. Ja'Marr Chase was also in his rookie season.

Burrow should be even better this year, considering he'll have an offseason unburdened by rehab, a rebuilt line, and numerous receivers to target. Cincinnati will be challenged to win the division but is capable of competing for the AFC's top seed.

Derek Carr (+1200)

Carr made the leap last year, going from around 4,000-yard seasons to recording 4,804 yards in 2021. And that was before the Raiders acquired Davante Adams and hired Josh McDaniels as head coach to give the offense some stability. Getting that help while sitting with the longest odds for the division is a perfect recipe for Carr's volume. The prospect of having Darren Waller for more than the 11 games he played last year will help too.

Carr's cracked 30 touchdowns just once in a campaign, but he's now got the best goal-line receiver in the NFL - one who helped Rodgers to a league-leading 48 TDs in 2020 - and the guy who called the plays over more than a few big Brady touchdown seasons. At +1800, there's some value that the Raiders scrap much of their run game in goal-to-go situations, and Carr obliterates his career-high 32 passing touchdowns.

Jameis Winston (+3000)

We've mentioned that Brady cashed tickets in this market last year, and Watson did so the season before. But who led the league in passing yardage in 2019?

Yep, Jameis Winston.

Winston had 5,109 yards in his last full (16-game) campaign. That may have more to do with being in a Bruce Arians offense that Brady took advantage of last year, but at least we know Winston has it in him. That's more than we can say for those around him on the oddsboard.

He sat behind Drew Brees in 2020 and was starting to find some form in New Orleans before getting hurt last year. If he has access to targets like Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry, along with the easy yardage that throws to Alvin Kamara can create, maybe Winston is the long shot who can lead the NFL in passing yards.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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