NFL season-long props: Best bets to lead the league in rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor's 1811-yard season last year was impressive in its volume and a perfect example of how the rushing title betting market can work. Taylor combined 332 carries with an outstanding average of 5.5 yards per carry. Five running backs had between 240 and 307 carries, but none averaged better than 4.7 yards per touch, so the Colts' workhorse literally ran away with the rushing title. Taylor's mix of opportunity and per-play success, along with his age, make him the favorite to win it again this season.
Odds to lead NFL in rushing yards| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | +450 |
| Derrick Henry | +600 |
| Dalvin Cook | +1000 |
| Nick Chubb | +1000 |
| Najee Harris | +1200 |
| Joe Mixon | +1600 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +2000 |
| Damien Harris | +2000 |
| Javonte Williams | +2000 |
| Antonio Gibson | +3000 |
| Austin Ekeler | +3000 |
| Cam Akers | +3000 |
| Elijah Mitchell | +3000 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | +3000 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +3000 |
| Rashaad Penny | +3000 |
Odds available on theScore Bet, players not listed above available at 40-1 or longer
To find value away from Taylor, who won't be leaned on in the same way he was last year due to the Colts' upgrade at quarterback, we'll look for players who are poised to get an increase in volume since opportunity is easier to create than quality of rush.
Best betsDerrick Henry (+600)
It helped backers of Taylor (+1000 before last season) that the favorite missed more than half of the 2021 season. The Titans' massive weapon was coming off the third-best yards-per-carry season this century and was averaging the 19th-most yards per game before he got hurt last year. The injury was understandable given the volume of carries Henry had in becoming the first tailback to win back-to-back rushing titles since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006-07.
Henry returned rusty in the playoffs, but he should be set for this season. Even if Malik Willis replaces Ryan Tannehill at some point, it might actually help Henry, given Willis' threat as a runner. Henry averaged just 4.3 yards per carry last season, but he was over five yards per rush in the previous two seasons.
Elijah Mitchell (+3000)
After years of confusion in the 49ers' backfield, Mitchell appears to be getting his chance as the primary ball carrier in a potentially explosive run-first offense. Whether you rely on the eye test from watching the 49ers' complex scheme, or you dig into all the metrics that love Mitchell, you know he combines the speed (39 runs at 15-plus mph) and the elusiveness (4.1 yards per carry after contact) to gain more yards than he's supposed to on a given snap.
Mitchell had 207 carries over 11 games last season, so a 300-carry full season isn't out of the question. If he can approach that, Mitchell can crack 1500 yards and be in play for a rushing title at a number that has been good enough to win in three of the last six seasons.
Miles Sanders (+5000)
If half the equation is per-carry success, Sanders has progressively averaged 4.6, 5.3, and 5.5 yards over his three seasons. The other half of the formula is the issue, but the Eagles' backfield is less crowded than in years past, so Sanders could receive more touches. The Penn State star had the second-most yards per carry before contact last season in the Eagles' top-ranked run scheme. He'll need more yards after contact to go with the opportunity, but he's one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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