TNF player props: Staking out the Chargers and Chiefs

Last season, we rock and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday night player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.

"Why don't we just saw each other in half and call it a night, OK?"

In Jerry's stand-up bit at the end of the second episode of the 90s sitcom, he describes how exes who become friends know each other's secrets like two magicians trying to entertain each other. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert might as well be those illusionists, and they'll try to outdo each other with on-field sorcery on the big stage Thursday night. Both should trade tricks with help from a cast of assistants in a highly entertaining contest.

"The Stake Out"

"Simon, Bennett, Robbins, Oppenheim, and Taft" may not be offensive weapons for the Chargers, but "Ekeler, Kelley, Michel, Palmer, and Horvath" are certainly reliable representatives. While Herbert spread the ball around to 11 different receivers last week, he also handed it off to his representatives, showing just how many targets the high-powered offense has.

A second-half lead allowed Austin Ekeler to get 14 carries overall, but a game against the Chiefs likely has a different script. In his two meetings with Kansas City last season, Ekeler had 11 and 12 carries.

Since the Chiefs' defensive line is much better than it's been in recent years, the Chargers will likely go to the air, which will also allow them to take advantage of K.C. starting a seventh-round rookie cornerback. Ekeler's receiving ability will keep him dangerous, albeit not via the ground.

Pick: Austin Ekeler under 12.5 rush attempts (-115)

A TD that's definitely going to happen

In "The Stake Out," George asserts that he can pretend to be an architect for the first time in what would become a recurring gag. Depending on the game, Mike Williams can play the role of No. 1 receiver well, and he doesn't need a fancy fake name like Art Vandelay.

Williams had nine targets in each game against the Chiefs last year but only had big stats in one of the contests. Keenan Allen will miss Thursday's game, so his double-digit targets and red-zone reliability have to go somewhere. With Trent McDuffie already on the injured reserve, the Chiefs' secondary might be thin enough for Williams to be the George to Herbert's Jerry, helping him score points in dangerous territory.

At better than even-money for a 50-50 shot, we'll back the big end-zone target to haul one in for the type of big score that Jerry's mom went for in their Scrabble game. If he doesn't come through, we'll need someone to comfort and "quone" us.

Pick: Mike Williams anytime touchdown (+120)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

During a chance meeting at a party that he wasn't supposed to attend, Jerry learns just enough information about a woman he speaks with to later secure a date. While I probably shouldn't have been watching the Chiefs' preseason game with the Commanders, I gleaned enough to know that K.C. has high hopes for receiver-turned-tight end Jody Fortson.

Fortson had two touchdowns on that mid-August afternoon and then scored in Week 1 against the Cardinals. With one more score, the red-zone threat will no longer be available at 5-1 or better. We'll bet that he gets at least a target in the paint and hope he hauls it in for a decent payout.

Pick: Jody Fortson (+500)

How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers - to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.